Documentation
Food availability estimates measure food supplies moving
from production through marketing channels for domestic
consumption. This page covers general information, methodological
concepts, and a detailed discussion of the supply and
disappearance estimates.
The section “Estimating Supply
and Disappearance of Major Foods” describes
methods and data sources used to develop the supply and
disappearance balance sheets and per capita food availability
tables for each commodity and/or commodity group. The
composition of each commodity and/or commodity group,
the conversion from primary to retail weight, and special
problems related to coverage are discussed. The following
commodities are covered:
In Brief
The per capita food availability data compiled by USDA’s
Economic Research Service reflect the amount of food available
for human consumption in the United States. This historical
series measures the national food supply of several hundred
foods, and it is the only source of time series data on
U.S. food availability in the country. ERS's food availability
data are often referred to as food disappearance data
because the data represent the resulting food supply after
food "disappears" into the food marketing system.
ERS calculates the residual of a commodity’s total annual
available supply after subtracting measurable uses, such
as farm inputs (feed and seed), exports, ending stocks,
and industrial uses. The annual data series includes per
capita food availability estimates, which are useful for
studying food consumption trends because they are a proxy
for actual food intake.
History Behind the Data
Although USDA has collected and published information
on food production since the 1860s, information on food
consumption did not appear until much later. Interest
in food consumption was stimulated by surpluses in agriculture
following World War I. The need for accurate data became
apparent in analyzing and administering production planning
programs under the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1933.
One objective of these programs was maintaining adequate
supplies of food for domestic consumers. Droughts in 1934
and 1936 and consequent fears of food shortages further
aroused interest in analyzing the national food supply.
USDA issued its first estimates of per capita food availability
in 1941 for use in appraising food requirements and resources
in the war emergency. Since then, estimates of per capita
availability of major foods have been published annually
with only a few exceptions. Historical series on per capita
food availability were developed to analyze long-term
trends, shifts in demand, and nutrients provided by foods.
Data were estimated back to 1909 for many foods.
Construction of the Data
Food availability data measure the use of basic commodities,
such as wheat, beef, and shell eggs for food products
at the farm level or an early stage of processing. They
do not measure food use of highly processed foods—such
as bakery products, frozen dinners, and soups—in
their finished form. Ingredients of highly processed foods,
however, are included as components of less processed
foods, such as sugar, flour, fresh vegetables, and fresh
meat.
The food availability series is based on records of annual
commodity flows from production to end uses. This involves
the development of supply and disappearance balance sheets
for each major commodity from which human foods are produced.
In general, the total annual available supply of
each commodity consists of the sum of production, imports,
and beginning stocks. These three components are either
directly measured or estimated by government agencies
using sampling and statistical methods.
For most commodity categories, measurable nonfood
uses are farm inputs (feed and seed), exports, ending
stocks, and industrial uses. The amount of food available
for human consumption is calculated as the difference
between available commodity supplies and nonfood use.
In a few cases, supplies for human food use are measured
directly and one of the other use components becomes the
residual. This is the case for wheat, in which flour production
is measurable and available from manufacturers' reports
on flour milling and therefore, livestock feed use becomes
the residual.
Per capita food availability is calculated by dividing
the annual total food supply during a specific time period
by the U.S. total resident
population plus Armed Forces overseas in a given year.
Yearly population estimates (see
spreadsheet) are from the U.S. Census Bureau. For
commodities not shipped overseas in substantial amounts,
such as fluid milk and cream, ERS uses the resident population
as the base. No adjustments are made for changes in the
demographic makeup of the population.
Because food availability data are presented for calendar
years, the supply and disappearance tables are adjusted
from crop years, using data provided by USDA's National
Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) on January 1 stocks
or monthly marketings by producers, to calendar years.
Crops not marketed by the end of the calendar year are
assumed to be marketed during the following year. That
is, estimates of ending stocks are used as beginning
stocks in the next period. For perishable products
such as various types of produce, ending and beginning
stocks are not components of the balance sheets.
Data Sources
ERS develops commodity supply and disappearance balance
sheets for raw and semi-processed agricultural commoditieswheat,
corn, red meat, and fluid milk, for examplethat
are made into food products. These balance sheets use
data from a variety of government and private sources.
USDA's NASS surveys are a major source of data on farm
production, stocks, and some processed products (including
manufactured dairy products). Stocks include those commercially
held and those owned or under loan by USDA's Commodity
Credit Corporation (CCC). Stocks normally reported include
those held on farms, in terminal markets, in cold storage,
and in other warehouses. NASS statisticians use the Census
of Agriculture and reports from marketing agencies to
check their survey estimates.
Other sources of information include the U.S. Census
Bureau and USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service. For
example, the Census Bureau compiles trade information
from U.S. Customs Service reports to provide foreign trade
data and estimates of territorial shipments (primarily
to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Alaska and
Hawaii were treated as territories through 1959 before
they became States). Finally, in estimating production
of processed food products, ERS supplements NASS production
data with information from other appropriate sources,
such as trade association reports.
Level of Measurement
Data on various components of the supply and disappearance
balance sheets come from different sources, and measurements
are not always at the same point in the production and
marketing system. Before a balance sheet can be constructed,
all components must be converted to a common unit, or
primary weight, to measure production. The structure
of the marketing system and the availability of data dictate
the point in the marketing system where production is
measured. For some commodities, such as fruit and vegetables,
the primary measurement level is at the farm gate. For
others, such as margarine, it is at the processing or
manufacturing plant.
Once the primary weight of production is selected, quantities
of other components from the balance sheet are converted
to the same level of marketing, using appropriate conversion
factors. For example, production data for meats are based
on slaughter plant data; therefore, carcass weight is
the primary weight for meats. Meat imports, usually measured
in retail or processed weights,
are converted to carcass-weight
equivalents before aggregation in the balance sheet.
For many food groups, ERS converts food availability
figures from a primary weight to a secondary weight
or retail-weight equivalent, using conversion factors
that account for further processing, trimming, shrinkage,
or loss in the marketing and distribution system. For
example, ERS provides estimates of the per capita availability
of red meat, poultry, and fish on a boneless,
trimmed-weight basis in addition to the estimates
on a carcass-weight basis. The boneless weight excludes
all bones and some separable fat from red meat, poultry,
and fish. However, no adjustment is made in the food availability
data series for cooking loss, plate waste, or spoilage.
The boneless weight provides a comparable basis for measuring
the per capita availability of poultry, red meat, and
fish. The difference between the estimates of per capita
availability of meat and poultry on a boneless-weight
and retail-weight basis is due to differences in the proportion
of bone and other inedible components in the retail weight.
Retail cuts of chicken and pork contain a larger proportion
of bone than retail cuts of beef.
Strengths and Limitations of the Data
Data are collected by USDA directly from producers and
distributors using techniques that vary by commodity.
The data are not collected from individual consumers,
and thus provide an independent basis for examining dietary
trends without the problems implicit in consumer survey
data. If waste and other losses in the system are relatively
constant over time, the data can provide an independent
measure of changes in consumption patterns. Thus, trends
in per capita availability data can also be used to test
hypotheses that government and general sources of diet
and health information are affecting consumers' food choices.
The series measures food supplies available for consumption
in all outletsat home and away from home. It measures
food use of basic commodities without identifying all
end use products, thereby eliminating common problems
with food intake survey data, such as decomposing compound
foods like lasagna or beef stew back into commodity ingredients.
However, final product forms and consumption locations
are usually unknown, and little data exist on supplies
of more highly processed foods. In short, relatively good
data exist for many food ingredients (for example, flour,
sugar, or eggs) but not for common food products (for
example, bread, cookies, or beef hot dogs).
In addition, food availability data provide good estimates
of the annual per capita availability of kidney beans,
for example, but provide no information on the different
ways that the beans were processed for consumption (canned
or dried), where the beans were marketed (supermarket,
hospital, school, restaurant, or food manufacturer), how
they were consumed (in burritos, chili, or salad), or
how they were prepared (made from scratch or reheated
from canned). The data do not show where the food is consumed
because the data are derived from food production statistics
rather than from direct observations of consumption. The
poundage represents food available for consumption from
all sources, including grocery stores, restaurants, and
government food and nutrition assistance programs.
To correctly interpret the data, it is also important
to understand that the data are aggregates for the United
States and that no data are available for use as a proxy
for consumption within States or regions or by socioeconomic
or demographic categories (such as those of the consumer
who ultimately ate the food).
Sources of Error
Several potential sources of error may affect interpretation
and use of the balance sheets and food availability data.
Because food use is generally estimated as the residual
of the balance sheets, food use data are subject to the
various types of errors present in each of the balance
sheet components. Primary sources of error are incomplete
reporting, inaccurate conversion factors, and inappropriate
estimation techniques. In compiling the data, ERS makes
substantial efforts to maintain consistency in methods
used to measure availability trends and to avoid introducing
new sources of error.
The scarcity of information on the components of supply
and disappearance introduces one source of error. For
example, data on stocks are not available for some commodities.
The only available data for estimating stocks for some
commodities come from farmer marketings of crops, and
it is assumed that stocks are equal to the proportion
of the crop not marketed by the end of the calendar year.
Moreover, stocks do not include inventories of retailers
and wholesalers because those data are not available.
Perhaps more importantly, the data may overstate the
amount of food actually ingested by humans by capturing
substantial quantities of nonedible food portions and
food lost through waste and spoilage in the home and marketing
system. The series also includes unknown quantities of
foods that are used as ingredients in processed foods
that are exported, such as soft drinks, baked goods, and
cereal products. For example, the food supply series for
caloric sweeteners includes some high
fructose corn syrup (HFCS) used by U.S. beverage manufacturers
to make soft drinks for export. As a result of the inclusion
of these foods and overcounting, the average calories
provided by the food supply are generally well above those
needed to meet the energy needs of the U.S. population.
Therefore, ERS also provides loss-adjusted
food availability data to more closely approximate
actual intake (see Documentation).
ERS is in the process of revising and validating the conversion
factors in this data series.
Usefulness of the Data
Per capita food availability data are used extensively
for analytical and comparative purposes. Economists use
the series to estimate effects of changes in price, income,
and information on food consumption. Market researchers
use the data to study changes in consumption and market
shares for food commodities.
The per capita food availability data are most commonly
used as a proxy for actual food intake or consumption.
In particular, they are used to:
- Measure the average level of food consumption in the
country
- Show year-to-year changes in the consumption of major
foods
- Estimate long-term consumption trends
- Assess changes in estimated food consumption relative
to major nutrition or policy initiatives
Food availability data are also used to construct two
other data series:
-
Loss-Adjusted
Food Availability: Because the per capita food
availability data do not account for all spoilage
and waste that accumulates in the marketing system
and is discarded in the home, the data typically overstate
actual consumption. Therefore, ERS calculates a set
of estimates that account for food loss prior to ingestion
and are based on servings as defined by the 2005 Dietary
Guidelines for Americans and related materials.
Per capita food availability poundages are adjusted
for food loss, including spoilage, inedible components
(such as bones in meat and pits in fruit), plate waste,
and use as pet food. These estimates also include
the loss-adjusted number of calories consumed daily
(per capita).
Nutrient Availability:
USDA's Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion (CNPP)
computes a related statistical series on total nutrients
available for human consumption per capita per day.
This series combines the detailed ERS estimates of per
capita food availability and CNPP information on the
nutrient content of foods, including inedible waste,
such as bones and excess fat in meat. The resultant
time series provides data on the effects of changing
food use and composition of nutrients available for
consumption. This data series can be found on both the
ERS and the CNPP
websites.
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Estimating Supply and Disappearance
of Major Foods
This section describes methods and data sources used
for developing the supply and disappearance balance sheets
and per capita food availability tables for each commodity
and/or commodity group. The composition of each commodity
group, the conversion from primary to retail weight, and
the special problems related to coverage are also discussed.
Meat
ERS compiles and publishes supply and disappearance
tables annually and quarterly for most red meats: beef,
veal, pork, and lamb and mutton. Meat availability estimates
include fresh and processed meats used and sold through
grocery stores and restaurants.
Meat production data are usually derived from three
sources: slaughter under Federal inspection, other commercial
slaughter, and slaughter on farms. Data on the number
and weight of animals slaughtered under Federal inspection
are obtained through meat inspection programs administered
by USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS)
but are reported by USDA’s NASS. NASS also collects slaughter
statistics on meat production in plants not federally
inspected and on the number and weight of animals slaughtered
on farms. Beginning and ending stock data are from NASS.
Import and export data are from the U.S. Department of
Commerce.
Production data are based on carcass weight in pounds
of product at the slaughter plant. Commercial stocks and
most imports and exports are on a product-weight basis
but are converted to carcass weight for use in the supply
and disappearance balance sheets. ERS also converts meat
data to retail-weight and boneless, trimmed-weight food
availability equivalents. The retail weight measure represents
supplies on a retail-weight basis converted from the carcass-weight
equivalent basis. The boneless-weight measure excludes
all bones but includes separable fat sold on retail cuts
of meat. Conversion factors are used to account for processing,
trimming, shrinkage, or loss in the distribution system
when converting between carcass-, retail-, and boneless-weight
measures. In most cases, food availability estimates at
the carcass level include pet food because data are not
available to separate it from food for human consumption.
The conversion factors for the different types of meat
are periodically changed to reflect changing production
and marketing practices. For example, the amount of trimmed
fat in beef has increased over time. In addition, yield
grades have gradually improved, requiring less fat to
be trimmed. Yield grades predict the yield of trimmed
cuts from a carcasslower numbers mean higher yields.
As yield grades improved, the average carcass weights
increased, and both factors imply a strong tendency for
cattle carrying less fat. The conversion factor used to
estimate retail-equivalent weight from the carcass weight
of pork has gradually increased over time, reflecting
a reduction in the fat content of hogs.
ERS calculates per capita red meat availability for
a specific year by dividing annual total disappearance
of a particular type of meat by the Census Bureau’s
estimate of the U.S. total resident population plus Armed
Forces overseas. ERS provides the per capita availability
data on a carcass-weight, retail-weight, and boneless,
trimmed-weight basis.
Poultry
Per capita food availability estimates for poultry products
(broilers, mature chicken, and turkeys) are published
in several sources. Broilers are young chickens of either
sex produced for meat. The terms “broilers,”
“fryers,” and “young chickens”
are interchangeable. Estimates of per capita availability
are published monthly in USDA's World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
This report contains the latest monthly revisions to the
quarterly supply and demand estimates, which form the
basis for estimating per capita availability. Historical
per capita availability data are reported on a monthly,
quarterly, and yearly basis in ERS's Poultry
Yearbook. Per capita poultry availability estimates
are actual estimates of domestic disappearance (implied
consumption or availability) using secondary data sources
rather than primary observations of individual consumption.
ERS uses a similar procedure to construct supply and
disappearance tables for broilers, mature chicken, and
turkeys. The first step is to estimate domestic production
for the three poultry meats. The domestic production estimates
come from NASS's monthly Poultry
Slaughter report. This report contains estimates of
the domestic production of the three poultry meats on
a ready-to-cook (RTC) basis. The estimates for domestic
production are multiplied by a coefficient to estimate
the amount of production condemned after processing. This
estimate is subtracted from overall production to derive
net production on an RTC basis.
The second step is to estimate poultry meat products
in cold storage at the beginning of the period (monthly,
quarterly, yearly). Estimates of cold storage holdings
come from the NASS Cold
Storage report.
The third step is to estimate poultry meat imports.
These estimates are derived from U.S. Census Bureau data.
The data, originally in a large number of categories,
are aggregated into estimates of imported broilers, mature
chicken, and turkeys.
The estimates of net production, beginning stocks, and
imports are added together to arrive at the total supply
of poultry products available for consumption. Estimates
of poultry products exported and ending stocks in cold
storage are then subtracted from the total supply figure
to estimate implied domestic availability. This figure
is then divided by an estimate of the total resident population
of the United States plus Armed Forces overseas to derive
per capita availability on a carcass-weight basis. This
estimate of availability of broilers and mature chickens
is a proxy for consumption of whole birds. Since a large
percentage of availability is of chicken parts, these
estimates are multiplied by a coefficient to arrive at
a per capita availability estimate on a retail weight
basis. Turkey availability has no conversion factor between
RTC and retail weight.
See an Amber Waves’ article Chicken
Consumption Continues Longrun Rise.
Eggs
ERS compiles supply and disappearance tables for eggs
using mostly NASS data. To exclude eggs for hatching from
the calculations, ERS estimates numbers of hatching eggs
from numbers of chicks hatched and a hatch percentage
calculated from weekly eggs placed in incubators and chicks
hatched. Data on stocks, exports, and imports of dried,
liquid, and frozen eggs are reported by product weight,
with weights converted to shell-egg equivalents for use
in the supply and disappearance balance sheet. While the
balance sheet is based on dozens of shell-egg equivalents,
data are also available in cases (30 dozen per case) and
pounds (1.57 pounds per dozen).
Egg availability includes fresh and processed uses by
manufacturers and institutional outlets, such as hospitals,
hotels, and restaurants. Egg availability also includes
use as a culture medium for lab use because data are not
available to distinguish this use from the total estimate
for human consumption.
Fishery Products
The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) of the
U.S. Department of Commerce compiles data on supply and
disappearance of fishery products. The total U.S. supply
of imports and landings
is converted to edible weight, and decreases in supply—such
as exports—are subtracted. The remaining total is
divided by the U.S. resident population plus Armed Forces
overseas to estimate per capita availability. Data are
derived primarily from secondary sources and are subject
to incomplete reporting; changes in source data or invalid
model assumptions may also have a significant effect on
the resulting calculation. NMFS publishes separate balance
sheets on an edible-weight basis for fresh, frozen, canned,
and cured fish, as well as for total fish and shellfish.
The series Fisheries of the United States on the NMFS
website contains related supply and disappearance data.
Production data for fresh or frozen fish and shellfish
from NMFS surveys relate only to commercial landings of
major cultured species (for example, salmon, sardines,
and tuna). Commercial processors prepare regular reports
on canned and cured seafood. Alaskan and Hawaiian production
of fresh and frozen fishery products have been included
since 1960, consistent with reports for most other commodities.
Canned production includes production from Alaska in all
years, Hawaii since 1952, Puerto Rico since 1953, and
American Samoa since 1954. Cured fishery products have
been included from Alaska since 1955 and from Hawaii since
1960. The production data have been included for cultured
catfish since 1973, trout since 1991, and salmon, tilapia,
striped bass, and shrimp since 1996.
The Census Bureau provides foreign trade data on fishery
products. Imports of fresh, frozen, and cured fishery
products are adjusted to eliminate duplication resulting
from domestic production of canned and cured fish products
from imported fish. Exports of fishery products include
both domestic and re-exported products.
Data for stocks of fresh and frozen fish and shellfish
held in commercial cold storage facilities have been used
since 1917. Data for stocks of canned fish were incomplete
and use was discontinued in 1999.
Boneless Red Meat, Poultry, and Fish
Since 1986, ERS has developed and published a series
on availability of meat, poultry, and fish on a boneless-weight
basis. These boneless-weight estimates serve as a proxy
for consumption and are mainly used to make comparisons
of quantities of meat types consumed. Analysts compare
quantities based on boneless rather than retail weight
to estimate whether, for example, more turkey is consumed
than fish. Data on fish are available only on a boneless-weight
basis.
Factors for calculating boneless and trimmed weight
were derived from USDA data on the quantity of boneless
meat obtained from a carcass. These factors are based
on values from ERS's Weights,
Measures, and Conversion Factors for Agricultural Commodities
and Their Products and current ERS estimates. The
conversion factors for different kinds of meat are included
in the supply and disappearance spreadsheets for particular
meats (see the far right-hand column of Beef:
Supply and Disappearance). The boneless-weight measure
for red meat excludes all bones but includes separable
fat sold on retail cuts of meat. Boneless-weight figures
for poultry are derived from RTC figures, using USDA food
composition data.
Dairy Products
Milk's various components are transformed into a tremendous
variety of dairy products—basics, such as butter,
cheese, and yogurt, and some newer products, such as condensed
milk and dry milks. Dairy products are consumed directly
but are also used as ingredients in a vast number of foods.
Analyzing the supply and demand conditions for farm milk
requires some way of adding dairy products together.
Aggregation method
To avoid confusion, ERS aggregates dairy products on
a common basis, by choosing a particular component (or
a cluster of related components) of milk and adding products
based on the level of that component in the product. Any
component could work, but milkfat, skim solids or protein,
and calcium are the most common bases. Milkfat
has traditionally been most commonly used because it is
the most valuable component and the least likely to be
wasted or fed to animals.
The concept of milk equivalent was derived because
a quantity of milk is easier to grasp for most people
than a quantity of a component. More accurately, a milk
equivalent, or the milkfat basis of a product, is the
farm milk required to provide the milkfat in that product.
The simplest way to obtain a factor to convert product
weight into a milk equivalent is to divide the fat percentage
of the product by the fat percentage of farm milk. For
example, a fat content of 27.5 percent in Swiss cheese
and 3.67 percent in farm milk generates a factor of 7.49.
In practice, many of the conversion factors were derived
by more intricate, but conceptually close, procedures.
No single aggregation of products is likely to be satisfactory,
at least in the short run. Changes in milkfat-based product
markets (like butter) can be quite different from changes
in skim-based product markets (for example, nonfat dry
milk). For this reason, total dairy product availability
is best understood if simultaneously measured by a milkfat
basis and a skim-solid basis.
Avoiding double counting
For dairy products, the total is generally less than
the sum of the parts. Dairy products commonly are used
as ingredients in the production of other dairy products.
For example, ice cream might contain fresh milk and cream,
condensed and dry milk, buttermilk, whey, and butter.
Unless extraordinary measures are taken to adjust for
duplication, adding availability of individual dairy products
into total dairy availability results in double counting.
An easier and more robust approach is to calculate aggregate
availability similarly to individual product availability
(see All dairy products:
Per capita availability). Stocks, trade, and the other
factors needed for the calculation are first aggregated
into totals that are free of duplication (because the
components can only be in one product at a time), and
then total availability is calculated. USDA's NASS estimates
milk production and stocks; the Census Bureau reports
imports, exports, and shipments to U.S. territories.
Storable dairy products
Availability of most storable manufactured dairy products
is estimated by relatively simple food disappearance calculations
(see commodity supply and disappearance tables for American
cheese, other
cheese, total
cheese, condensed
and evaporated whole milk, nonfat
dry milk, and butter).
Disappearance estimates for these products generally involve
few interpretation problems as most manufactured dairy
products undergo relatively little further processing.
The traditionally high cost of these products and their
straightforward marketing flow leads to relatively minor
wastage between manufacturing and consumer purchases.
For example, a considerable amount of cheese is trimmed
off rectangular blocks that are cut into specialty shapes
such as "longhorns," but this trim is then used
in processed cheese products.
Perishable manufactured products
Availability of perishable manufactured products, such
as ice cream or cottage cheese, is set equal to production.
Two problems exist with this approach with no pragmatic
alternative. First, stocks and trade may be significant,
particularly for ice cream. On an annual basis, the magnitude
of error is probably fairly small but could be sizable
for shorter periods. Second, spoilage occurs in the distribution
channels. At one time, waste was considerable; however,
longer shelf life, better packaging, and improved refrigeration
have mitigated losses considerably.
Sales of fluid milk, cream, and specialty products
Data for sales of fluid milk, cream, and specialty products
are compiled from Federal and State regulatory sources
and estimates of the very minor amounts of unregulated
milk (see Fluid milk
and cream: Per capita availability). For beverage
milks, the data represent quantities sold by fluid processors
net of any returns from retailers. At one time, returns
were quite significant, but improved raw milk quality,
better pasteurization, and improved distribution have
reduced the amount substantially. Beginning in 2000, availability
data for fluid creams and specialty fluid items changed
from a net sales basis to a production basis.
See an Amber Waves data feature Trends
in U.S. Per Capita Consumption of Dairy Products, 1909
to 2001.
Also see an Amber Waves article Americans'
Dairy Consumption Below Recommendations and Cheese
Consumption Continues to Rise, and “Behind the
Data” on Measuring
America's Cheese Consumption.
Added Fats and Oils
ERS constructs supply and disappearance tables for oilseeds,
such as soybeans, cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola seed,
and peanuts, and for the primary oil and meal products
derived from oilseeds and animal sources. Data for oil
crop products are kept on an October-September crop-year
basis. These data are published in the Oil
Crops Yearbook. Data for stocks and crush
of oilseeds and the supply and disappearance of oilseed
products are derived from Current
Industrial Reports of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
The U.S. Department of Commerce also provides monthly
information on use of primary fats and oils in related
products. ERS summarizes the data according to primary
oil products. For example, soybean oil is distributed
among various processed products such as margarine and
shortening. ERS estimates the amount of each primary vegetable
oil and animal fat used in the production of margarine
and publishes the results in its Oil
Crops Yearbook. Analysts use data on the distribution
of primary oils in processed products in studying the
demand for particular oil crops. The summary by final
product is often used in estimating changes in the fatty
acid content of the fats and oils products consumed in
the United States.
ERS also compiles supply and disappearance data for
the major manufactured fats and oils products, including
margarine, edible tallow, lard, shortening, and salad
and cooking oils. These data are used in the ERS Food
Availability Data System to develop per capita availability
estimates. Food use data include availability of fats
and oils from all sources, whether purchased by consumers
or used by manufacturers and restaurants to produce bakery
and other food products. Food disappearance figures for
lard and tallow reflect only direct use by consumers,
restaurants, institutions, or manufacturers. Indirect
use of lard and tallow in margarine and shortening is
accounted for in the disappearance figures for margarine
and shortening, which helps avoid double counting when
estimating total food fats and oils disappearance. For
example, the Food Availability Data System reports estimates
for margarine and shortening but does not report estimates
for the soybean oil, other vegetable oils, and animal
fats used to make these products because that would double
count the amount of added fats and oils available for
consumption.
Disappearance may not be a reliable indicator of change
in consumption of fats and oils. Evidence suggests that
the waste (or nonfood use) portion of fats and oils disappearance
has increased during the past three decades with the growth
in away-from-home eating places, especially fast food
places. Foodservice establishments that deep fry foods
can generate significant amounts of waste grease, referred
to as “restaurant grease.” A study by SRI
International indicated that the quantity of used frying
fat disposed by restaurants and made available for use
in animal feeds, pet foods, industrial operations, and
for export amounted to about 6 pounds per capita, or about
10 percent of the total disappearance of food fats and
oils in that year.
Peanuts
Data on the supply and disappearance of peanuts come
from USDA's NASS reports and from trade data compiled
by the Census Bureau. Annual production data are reported
in the NASS publication Crop
Production. The total supply for each peanut marketing
year (August to July) is the sum of production, imports
of shelled and in-shell peanuts, and the beginning stocks
for that year as reported in the NASS publication Peanut
Stocks and Processing.
Peanut availability (use) data are broken down into
exports, seed and residual use, peanuts crushed for vegetable
oil and protein meal, and the largest categoryfood
use or disappearance. The food use and crush data are
reported in the NASS publication Peanut
Stocks and Processing. The peanut domestic food use
calculation is based primarily on NASS's manufacturers
survey data on peanuts used to make peanut candy, snack
peanuts, peanut butter, and other products, plus the apparent
disappearance of “roasting stock” peanuts
(from Peanut
Stocks and Processing), with some adjustments for
trade. Summary data on peanut supply and disappearance
on an in-shell (“farmer stock”) basis are
reported by ERS in the monthly Oil
Crops Outlook. ERS uses a conversion factor of 0.75
to convert in-shell data to a shelled basis.
Vegetables and Melons
ERS compiles and publishes supply and disappearance statistics
for a wide variety of commercially produced fresh vegetables
and melons. Although the supply and disappearance tables
are essential for industry analysis, their primary purpose
is to estimate food disappearance, both in total and on
a per capita basis. Largely compiled on a calendar-year
basis, the per capita disappearance—or food availability—statistics
generated from these tables are published in ERS's bi-monthly
Vegetables and Melons Outlook.
Many of the supply and disappearance tables are released
annually in the Vegetables
and Melons Yearbook data product.
Supply
and disappearance table coverage for vegetables
and melons (except potatoes
and sweet potatoes) |
Fresh vegetables and melons:
|
Artichokes
Asparagus
Snap beans
Broccoli
Brussels sprouts*
Cabbage
Carrots
Cauliflower |
Celery
Collards*
Sweet corn
Cucumbers
Eggplant
Endive/escarole*
Garlic
Kale* |
Iceberg lettuce
Romaine/leaf lettuce
Green lima beans*
Mushrooms
Mustard greens*
Okra*
Onions
Bell peppers
Radishes* |
Spinach
Squash
Tomatoes
Turnip greens*
Pumpkins*
Cantaloupe
Honeydew
Watermelon |
|
Vegetables for freezing: |
Asparagus
Snap beans
Broccoli
|
Carrots
Cauliflower
Sweet corn
|
Green peas
Green lima beans*
Spinach |
Miscellaneous* |
|
|
|
|
Vegetables for canning: |
Asparagus*
Snap beans
Beets*
Cabbage for kraut |
Carrots
Sweet corn
Pickling cucumbers
Green lima beans*
|
Mushrooms
Green peas
Chile peppers
Spinach*
|
Tomatoes
Miscellaneous* |
|
|
|
|
Other vegetables: |
Dry edible beans** |
Dry peas and lentils* |
Onions for dehydration |
|
Note: Data on potatoes
and sweet potatoes are discussed separately.
* Only per capita disappearance or availability
data are published for these items; detailed supply
and disappearance tables are not published.
**Dry edible beans consist of supply and disappearance
tables for 14 classes of beans aggregated to an
all-bean total. |
In general, commodity disappearance data are derived
by adjusting total production or use for trade (exports
minus imports), stocks (inventories), and other uses where
applicable (seed, feed, shrink, and storage losses). Disappearance
data divided by the total annual U.S. population (including
Armed Forces overseas) yields an estimate of per capita
availability. Per capita availability data for fresh vegetables
are presented on a farm-weight and retail-weight basis.
The primary data sources used in determining vegetable
and melon supply and disappearance include NASS (production,
frozen stocks, pickling cucumber stocks, census acreage,
and onion shrinkage), the Census Bureau (import volume,
export volume, and population estimates), and industry
sources (processing tomato stocks and onion stocks). The
data cover U.S.-produced vegetables and melons for fresh
markets, freezing, canning, and dehydrating (onions).
Fresh vegetables
Supply and disappearance estimates for fresh market vegetables
can be divided into three categories:
- Estimates based on NASS national production estimates
- Estimates based primarily on State-supplied production
estimates, and/or AMS shipments (for example, radishes,
eggplant, green lima beans, endive/escarole, and brussels
sprouts)
- Estimates based largely on Census Bureau acreage with
interpolated intercensal years (for example, okra, collards,
kale, mustard greens, and turnip greens)
Annual fresh-market supply is largely determined by NASS
production estimates (except for selected crops where
production is estimated by ERS using alternative sources)
plus import volume reported by the Census Bureau. NASS
fresh vegetable production estimates cover the majority
of harvested quantities destined for sale in commercial
markets; these data exclude produce from home gardens
and output from States that primarily serve local markets
for limited time periods.
Prior to the 1990s, imports usually entered the market
during the winter and early spring when domestic supplies
were low. Although the majority of volume still enters
during the winter-early spring market window, imports
of fresh vegetables, such as tomatoes and asparagus, are
increasingly seen outside their traditional season. Onions
are the only fresh vegetable for which stocks data exist
(supplied by industry). NASS frozen stocks are included
in the brussels sprouts estimate because the supply and
disappearance table for this dual use (fresh and processing)
vegetable covers all uses. Shrink and loss estimates
are subtracted from onion and fresh cabbage supply.
Although NASS provides annual estimates for onions, ERS
estimates cabbage shrinkage and loss as 2 percent of production.
Per capita domestic disappearance or availability calculations
for most fresh-market vegetables are straightforward.
U.S. imports are added to domestic production to arrive
at total supply. Except for onions and brussels sprouts
(frozen stocks), stocks are not entered into the supply
and disappearance equation for fresh vegetables. U.S.
export volume, shrinkage, and loss for onions and cabbage
are subtracted from total supply to yield net domestic
use. Domestic use is then divided by the July 1 estimate
of the U.S. population (including Armed Forces overseas)
to arrive at the per capita proxy for consumption.
Vegetables for freezing
The annual supply of vegetables destined for frozen products
(excluding potatoes) is largely determined by NASS production
estimates. Until 2005, the American Frozen Food
Institute (AFFI) estimated the production of frozen vegetables
(frozen pack), which was used by ERS to estimate production
of carrots and miscellaneous vegetables. The ERS estimate
of production of carrots for frozen items is 66 percent
of the NASS estimate of carrots for processing. This percentage
is based on the average share of NASS carrots for processing
accounted for by AFFI pack during 1996-2000.
Since 2004, production estimates for miscellaneous vegetables
for freezing are based on 1980-2004 estimates of pack,
imports, and ending stocks. Import volume and beginning
stocks are added to production estimates to complete the
annual supply estimate. Domestic use is then calculated
by subtracting export volume and ending stocks from total
supply. The miscellaneous category consists of items such
as collards, kale, mustard greens, okra, blackeye peas,
pumpkin, rhubarb, summer squash, turnip greens, turnips,
and other vegetables. Since the supply and disappearance
tables of vegetables for freezing are presented on a fresh-weight
basis, all frozen product weight data for imports, exports,
pack, and stocks are converted to a fresh weight basis
using conversion factors published in Weights,
Measures, and Conversion Factors for Agricultural Commodities
and Their Products.
Vegetables for canning
The annual supply of vegetables destined for canned products
(excluding potatoes) is largely determined by NASS production
estimates. For carrots, the NASS production estimate for
processing minus the ERS estimate of frozen pack yields
the production estimate. No estimate of miscellaneous
vegetables for canning exists, so domestic use is estimated
simply as net imports (import volume less export volume).
Due to program cutbacks since 2001, NASS ceased production
estimates for beets and cabbage for kraut, both of which
are now estimated by ERS using available State data and
Census Bureau acreage. Canning supply and disappearance
for vegetables are calculated in the same manner as supply
and disappearance for freezing. Imports and beginning
stocks are added to production to arrive at total supply,
with exports and ending stocks subtracted from supply
to yield domestic disappearance.
In the 1980s, the National Food Processors Association
began to phase out the reporting of canned vegetable stocks
(all estimates were dropped after 1989). Because of processor
consolidation, these estimates were dropped to lessen
the potential for disclosure of individual firms' operations.
Inventory movements provide year-to-year stability in
total disappearance and per capita availability estimates.
When stocks are dropped out of the supply and disappearance
estimate, the year-to-year per capita use series varies
substantially because disappearance estimates swing with
production adjustments (which move based on stock levels
and market prices).
To maintain integrity in the year-to-year disappearance
series, ERS began estimating ending stocks for the major
canning vegetables based largely on historical patterns
between stocks and production. Despite an increased likelihood
of errors in these estimations, ERS decided to continue
estimating December 31 stocks as a fixed share of production.
The share of production represented by ending stocks in
1999 was carried forward beginning in 2000 for sweet corn,
snap beans, green peas, asparagus, and cabbage canning.
Although stocks data do not appear in supply and use estimates
for chile peppers, carrots, spinach, beets, and green
lima beans, ERS does include NASS stocks data in estimates
for pickling cucumbers. In 1992, the California League
of Food Processors, in cooperation with tomato processors,
began to report quarterly stocks of processing tomatoes
held in California warehouses. These data have been essential
for determining national supply and disappearance of processing
tomatoes—a crop that accounts for about 70 percent
of all vegetables for canning.
Onions for dehydration
ERS compiles calendar year estimates of the supply and
disappearance of onions used for dehydration. More precise
data became available in 1992 when NASS began to explicitly
separate out California onion production for processing
in its annual onion estimates. Previously, ERS relied
on industry estimates and rules of thumb to determine
the share of California's summer storage crop dedicated
to processing (virtually all onion dehydrating takes place
in California). The weak link in these data, as with data
for many canned vegetables, is the lack of finished stocks.
Stock estimates contained in the supply and disappearance
table represent raw onions to be processed.
The supply and disappearance table is similar to that
for fresh onions in that total supply is the sum of NASS
production, Census Bureau import volume, and an estimate
for beginning dry bulb onion stocks. Domestic disappearance
equals total supply less the sum of dehydrated onion export
volume, ending dry bulb onion stocks, and shrinkage and
loss of raw onions for processing (estimated as 50 percent
of the shrink in California's summer onion crop).
Dry edible beans
With over 1.3 million acres, dry edible beans cover more
U.S. area than any other single vegetable or melon crop.
Dry beans is actually a catchall category containing dozens
of dry bean classes, including pinto, navy, Great Northern,
light-red kidney, and black beans. Virtually all of these
classes constitute separate markets that operate independently
of each other. As a result, ERS recently began completing
separate supply and disappearance tables for each of 14
classes of NASS dry bean production estimates. Total supply
is calculated as NASS production plus import volume plus
estimated beginning stocks.
ERS largely estimates stocks based on the share of production
that is marketed the following calendar year. Thus, ending
stocks on December 31, 2007, for example, would be equal
to production in 2007 less the share of the crop marketed
during September-December—the first 4 months of
the 2007/08 crop year. This estimation method is imprecise
because dry beans can be held over more than one season,
and in years of large crops, ad hoc adjustments may be
necessary. NASS publishes monthly marketing percentages
by State for all dry beans at the close of each crop year.
ERS estimates the shares that apply to each bean class
based on the State where the majority of the crop is produced.
The exception is for beans produced primarily in California
(e.g., baby limas, large limas, and blackeye peas), where
stocks are reported by industry.
Net domestic use is calculated by subtracting export
volume, seed use (area planted in the following year times
an estimate of seed use per acre), and ending stocks (on
December 31) from total supply. As is done for most other
vegetables, net domestic use is then divided by the July
1 estimate of the U.S. population (including Armed Forces
overseas) to arrive at the per capita food availability
estimates.
Mushrooms
ERS compiles crop year (July 1-June 30) supply and disappearance
data for fresh market and processing mushrooms. Calculation
of fresh market data follows the same procedure used for
most fresh market vegetables, with the exception of the
population figure used to calculate per capita use or
availability. ERS uses a January 1 population figure for
mushrooms, as that date falls in the middle of the mushroom
crop year. The procedure for processing mushrooms (used
mostly for canning) is similar to that for fresh mushrooms.
There are no stock data for processing mushrooms, so data
on production and net trade are used to determine net
domestic use. The annual NASS report, Mushrooms,
provides production data for both agaricus-types (the
majority of mushroom output) and specialty mushrooms,
such as Shiitake and Crimini. Import and export volumes
of processed mushrooms from the Census Bureau are converted
to a fresh-weight basis using a factor of 1.538 for canned,
1.5 for frozen, and 10.0 for dried/dehydrated mushrooms.
Limitations of vegetable supply and disappearance
data series
The first limitation is that disappearance or use cannot
be termed “vegetable consumption” per se.
Rather, it represents the apparent net use of vegetables
produced on the farm. Although the supply and disappearance
series does not directly measure what people eat, it nonetheless
provides a useful measure of consumption patterns and
trends. In addition, the farm
weight series is not adjusted for factors such as
loss during transportation from the shipping point, shrinkage
during retailing (such as spoilage, trimming), and products
thrown out unconsumed.
Second, ERS does not capture the entire universe of vegetables
produced and/or consumed by Americans. Despite the
large number of vegetables and melons included in
the supply and disappearance series, coverage is not complete.
Many commodities are not included due to a lack of information
on which to base a solid estimate—these include
fresh green peas, various Asian vegetables (such as bok
choy, turnips, and rutabagas), fresh herbs (such as dill
and parsley), fresh beets, parsnips, leeks, scallions
(green onions), rhubarb, domestically produced greenhouse
vegetables, and other specialty and dehydrated vegetables.
For canned and frozen vegetables, ERS does maintain a
miscellaneous supply and disappearance table to capture
the pack of miscellaneous frozen vegetables and to account
for net imports of canned and frozen vegetables not specifically
estimated.
Third, the information uderlying per capita estimates
is not always complete. U.S. trade statistics have not
consistently included commodity-level detail over time.
For example, data for fresh sweet corn exports were not
reported by the Census Bureau until 1978; previously,
sweet corn was included in a miscellaneous vegetable export
category. Thus, the supply and disappearance table used
to calculate per capita fresh sweet corn use or availability
contains no data for exports prior to 1978. Domestic use
may be overstated prior to 1978 by the unknown amount
exported.
Fourth, ERS must sometimes estimate principal data crucial
to understanding supply and disappearance due to discontinued
reporting by primary agencies. In 1989, for example, the
industry discontinued reporting pack and stocks of most
canned vegetables. Although the tomato processing industry
soon resumed reporting raw-equivalent stocks, ERS estimates
changes in canned stocks for such crops as sweet corn,
green beans, and green peas. If stock changes in
the supply and disappearance of these canned vegetables
were eliminated, year-to-year variations would likely
become wider and more unrealistic.
It has been crucial to fill in missing 1980s data. Following
the 1981 season, NASS ceased to report national production
estimates for a number of vegetables and melons due to
budget cuts. National production data were not reinstated
for these items until 1992, with the exception of asparagus
and cucumbers for pickles, which were both reinstated
in 1984.
To continue monitoring as much of the vegetable sector
as possible, ERS generated estimates of national production
for those commodities dropped from the NASS program in
1982. These estimates were based on data from State Departments
of Agriculture (in cooperation with the NASS State office)
that continued to collect production information for their
State. In many cases, the States that continued to maintain
their full vegetable data series in the 1980s accounted
for more than half of the U.S. total in 1981. As a result,
returning to NASS-supplied U.S. production estimates in
1992 was a smooth transition and required few statistical
adjustments.
See
an Amber Waves article Meeting
Fruit and Vegetables Dietary Recommendations Will Impact
Agriculture.
Also
see an Amber Waves article Behind the Data: Estimating
Per Capita Domestic Use of Head Lettuce.
Potatoes and Sweet Potatoes
Supply and disappearance data are available for fresh
and processed potatoes and for all sweet potatoes. NASS
provides survey data on production and frozen stocks,
and the Census Bureau provides trade data. ERS estimates
disappearance of potatoes and sweet potatoes based entirely
on production and net trade because data on stocks are
not available, except for frozen potatoes. Utilized production
data have been available since 1959 for fresh-market potatoes
and potatoes destined for key potato products. ERS has
published potato supply and disappearance data since 1960,
including the farm-weight equivalent of fresh, frozen,
canned, chip, and dehydrated potatoes. ERS estimates domestic
use of each of these products by adding corresponding
imports to, and subtracting exports from, NASS estimates
of utilized production. Only in the annual frozen potato
supply and use table does ERS add the difference between
beginning and ending stocks (derived from the NASS Cold
Storage report) to utilized production.
Disappearance estimates for sweet potatoes are available
on a farm-weight
basis. Domestic use or availability is calculated from
production after adding imports and subtracting exports,
as well as subtracting estimates of seed and feed use,
shrinkage, and loss. Stocks of canned sweet potatoes are
directly accounted for through 1989, after which the industry
discontinued reporting canned vegetable stocks because
of canner consolidation (there were too few firms to allow
data to be published). Seed use is estimated by ERS as
acres planted (for the coming year) multiplied by an average
seeding rate per acre. After use data were discontinued
in 1984, feed use, shrinkage, and loss estimates have
been assumed to be 5 percent of production. Per capita
use of both potatoes and sweet potatoes is calculated
as total annual domestic disappearance or availability
divided by total U.S. population (including Armed Forces
overseas) on July 1 as reported by the Census Bureau.
Fruit and Tree Nuts
ERS compiles and publishes supply and disappearance tables
for a broad range of commercially produced fruit and tree
nuts. Both total and per capita domestic food disappearance,
or food availability, estimate the amount of food available
for domestic consumption. These estimates do not represent
the actual amount of a specific commodity or product consumed;
however, they may be used to make indications about demand
trends. Other historical data presented in each of the
supply and disappearance tables such as production, stocks
(where applicable and available), imports, and exports
provide a basis for market analysis of a specific fruit
or tree nut industry. Often supply and disappearance tables
and/or food availability estimates for specific fruit
or tree nuts are presented in the Fruit and Tree Nuts
Outlook published five times a year. Annual publication
of most of these supply and disappearance tables is through
the
Fruit and Tree Nuts Yearbook.
Product Aggregates and Weight Equivalents
Because most fruit commodities have versatile food uses,
supply and disappearance tables for fruit are available
for fresh and major processed products,
including canned, dried, juice,
frozen, and wine (for grapes only).
All fruit included in the ERS food availability series
have food availability estimates for fresh use but not
all have similar processed uses. Individual commodity
supply and disappearance tables for the major processed
products are based on the major processed product uses
of the fruit and on the availability of reliable and consistent
data to support a supply and disappearance balance sheet.
For instance, specific citrus commodities (oranges, grapefruit,
lemons, and limes) in the ERS food availability series
estimate one product—juice—on the processed
side because processed citrus products consist mostly
of juice. Major noncitrus fruit such as apples and grapes,
on the other hand, have food availability estimates for
canned, dried, juice, and frozen. Domestic supplies of
most tropical fruit commodities included in the ERS food
availability series are marketed primarily for fresh use
and the lack of data on the processing sector limits supply
and disappearance balance sheets to fresh only, except
for pineapples (which include canned and juice).
Per capita availability data are presented on a farm-weight
basis for fresh fruit. ERS uses various conversion factors
to present availability of canned, dried, juice, frozen,
wine, and “other” processed fruit on both a product-weight
equivalent and a farm-weight basis. These conversion factors
are listed as footnotes in the supply and disappearance
tables for the various processed fruit products. All availability
data on tree nuts for domestic consumption are presented
on a shelled basis.
Data Sources
In developing the commodity supply and disappearance
tables, data on domestic production for fresh and processing
use of fruit and tree nuts are mostly drawn from the Citrus
Fruits Summary and Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary published
by NASS. Fruit growing wild and in noncommercial areas
are not estimated, except for wild (lowbush) blueberries
grown in managed lowbush fields in Maine. Shipment data
is used to represent domestic production in the supply
and disappearance balance sheets for raisins and prune
juice. Shipment data for raisins come from the Raisin
Administrative Committee and those for prune juice from
the Prune Marketing Committee. Data on the amount of packed
frozen produce had historically come from the American
Frozen Food Institute until they recently ceased reporting
this data. Various other sources now provide this data.
The Florida Citrus Processors Association provides stocks
of processed citrus fruit juices.
The commodity supply and disappearance tables also use
NASS data on stocks of frozen fruit. Stocks of processed
noncitrus fruit juices are not available from any source.
Stocks of tree nuts come from various commodity trade
groups. Fruit and tree nut trade data come mostly from
the Census Bureau, except for data on exports of almonds
(from the Almond Marketing Board), fresh cranberries (from
the Cranberry Marketing Committee), and dried prunes (from
the Prune Marketing Committee).
Data Limitations and Adjustments
Fresh
Reporting of domestic production ceased for mangos in
1998, limes in 2003, and pineapples in 2007. Imports comprise
the vast majority of available supplies of these tropical
fruit in the United States. The mango and lime industry
in Florida did not recover from the losses from 1992's
Hurricane Andrew. Many trees were not replaced and production
continued to decline significantly in the following years,
leading the Florida NASS Field Office to drop mangos and
limes from the annual commodity production survey. Reporting
was also recently discontinued for pineapple production
in Hawaii to avoid disclosure of individual operations
as the local industry now consists of one major corporation.
Canned
Industry tabulation and publication of canned fruit inventories
ceased in 1988. Estimates of the availability of canned
fruit for consumption tend to follow an alternating pattern,
increasing one year and decreasing the next. Without reported
data, ERS will have difficulty making quantity comparisons
between categories of processed products. Certain other
valuable fruit data have also become unavailable for use
in the balance sheets. The Pineapple Growers Association
of Hawaii stopped furnishing information on canned pineapples
and juice in August 1982.
Juice
In 2003-04, the Prune Marketing Committee stopped reporting
prune juice and concentrate shipments separately. Now
prune juice shipments are reported under “byproduct for
manufacturing,” which includes shipments of other byproducts
such as baby food. Because prune juice shipments have
historically made up a major share of all byproducts for
manufacturing, prune juice shipments dictated trends in
manufacturing byproducts. Thus, year-to-year changes in
manufacturing byproducts are being used to estimate current
prune juice shipments.
Frozen
The 2004 Frozen Food Pack Statistics was the final release
of annual pack statistics from the American Frozen Food
Institute (AFFI). ERS has replaced some of these estimates
with annual NASS figures on production for freezing, such
as for raspberries, apples, apricots, tart cherries, peaches,
and plums. Specific conversion factors are applied to
the NASS figures to convert farm-weight production to
frozen-weight equivalents. In the case of strawberries,
frozen pack statistics now come from the Processing Strawberry
Advisory Board of California. Other AFFI pack data cannot
be directly replaced by other data sources, requiring
ERS to extrapolate estimates based on year-to-year rates
of change in the specific commodity's total processed
production reported by NASS. ERS extrapolated estimates
for blackberries, blueberries, and boysenberries. For
sweet cherries, the year-to-year rate of change is based
on production for other processed products. With changes
in data sources, adjustments to several of the historical
time series have been incorporated.
Other
For some fruit, quantities used in processing products
such as jam, jelly, vinegar, wine, and juice are very
small and are not listed separately in processing reports.
For apples, sweet and tart cherries, and peaches, production
of jam and other minor products is listed as “other” processing
uses, whereas for grapes, it is listed under production
used for juice. Production of these minor items is excluded
from the supply and disappearance table, except for apples
(which has an “other” supply and disappearance table)
and grapes (which is incorporated in the grape juice supply
and disappearance). With grapes being the only fruit having
a significant proportion of production going into the
manufacturing of wine, grapes for wine form a separate
processing category apart from the major categories—canned,
dried, juice, and frozen. However, in this data system,
wine estimates in the beverage file are from the Wine
Institute.
In 2004, NASS included fresh sliced production among
the processed product categories for apples. However,
a supply and disappearance balance sheet cannot be created
because there is no data for imports and exports. Presently,
fresh sliced apple production is combined with other processed
apple production.
See an Amber Waves article Almonds
Lead Increase in Tree Nut Consumption.
Grains
Data on supply and disappearance of grains are organized
by primary use. ERS maintains balance sheets for the major
food grains (wheat and rice) and the major feed grains
(corn, barley, oats, and sorghum). ERS also maintains
balance sheets for rye through USDA's World Agricultural
Outlook Board. Food availability data are presented as
grain equivalents. USDA's NASS, the Census Bureau, and
other government agencies provide the data used to construct
the food grain supply and disappearance tables.
Wheat
ERS maintains supply and disappearance data for five
major classes of wheat: hard red winter, soft red winter,
hard red spring, white, and durum. These data are published
in the Wheat
Outlook and Wheat
Yearbook tables and are compiled on a marketing year
basis (June-May). Data on production and stocks are collected
by NASS. Food use of wheat is derived from Census Bureau
data on production of wheat flour; the flour data are
adjusted for imports and exports of wheat products from
Census Bureau data. For more information, see Estimating
Wheat Supply and Disappearance in the Wheat
briefing room.
Rice
Data on U.S. rice production and stocks by State and
class are reported by NASS. Trade data are reported by
the Census Bureau. Estimates of domestic rice use are
derived from several sources. First, seed use for next
year’s crop is calculated as expected planting multiplied
by the seeding rate. Seed use is reported as a separate
use category in the rice balance sheet. The rest of domestic
use is reported as a single termFood, Industrial,
and Residual (FI&R).
The FI&R term is calculated to equate total supply
with total demand for all market years in which NASS released
a survey-based estimate of actual ending stocks. For historic
market years, the FI&R term is calculated to equate
the sum of beginning stocks, imports, and production with
the sum of domestic disappearance, exports, and ending
stocks. Domestic disappearance equals the FI&R term
plus seed use. Seed use is calculated by multiplying the
next year's planted area by the per acre average seeding
rate.
Prior to the release of the ending stocks estimate by
NASS in late August (completing the August 1 to July 31
market year), the FI&R term is forecasted from a statistical
model. The forecasted FIR&R term is based on historic
FI&R estimates and expectations regarding U.S. population
growth and ethnic composition, changes in per capita rice
consumption, price movements, and income levels.
USDA does not report separate estimates for the three
components of the FI&R term. Only the aggregate FI&R
term is an official USDA estimate. USDA does, however,
develop internal estimates for all three FI&R components—food
use, industrial use, and the residual—to assist
in forecasting the FI&R term prior to the release
of the ending stocks data by NASS in late August. After
the release of the ending stocks estimate, the FI&R
term is revised to equate total supply and total use in
the U.S. rice balance sheet.
Data from two non-USDA sources are used to support internal
USDA food and industrial use estimates and to justify
any revisions. First, monthly shipments of rice for use
in manufacturing beer—the bulk of industrial use—are
reported by the U.S.
Treasury Department's Alcohol and Tobacco Tax Trade Bureau.
(In this data system, per capita beer estimates are from
the Beer Institute.) A substantial time lag occurs between
actual shipment of the rice to U.S. brewers and the release
of the data.
Second, data on U.S. milled rice shipments for domestic
food uses (including direct food use, processed foods,
and pet food) are available from an annual survey of U.S.
rice mills and repackagers by the USA Rice Federation.
The survey is reported in the Federation's annual U.S.
Rice Domestic Usage Report. Data from the annual milled
rice distribution survey are used to support historic
USDA internal food use estimates and to justify any revisions.
Domestic food use estimates reported in the survey typically
do not match USDA's internal food use estimates due primarily
to lack of survey participation by some U.S. rice mills.
There is a substantial time lag between the end of a market
year on July 31 and the release of the milled rice survey
data. The survey data are not directly used in forecasting
the FI&R term.
The final component of the FI&R term is the residual,
which—for market years with a NASS-reported ending
stocks estimate—is calculated so that when added
to internal USDA food and industrial use estimates (to
yield the FI&R term), total supply will equal total
use. The residual includes unreported losses in handling,
processing, and transporting, as well as statistical errors
in any component of supply and disappearance. ERS provides
annual FI&R estimates and further information on domestic
rice use in its monthly Rice
Outlook report and in the Rice
Year in Review report.
Other grains
Use of food grains for feed and alcohol production is
estimated as the residual component of the balance sheet
and thus is subject to errors in other balance sheet components.
ERS compiles supply and disappearance balance sheet tables
quarterly for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats. In 2007-08,
livestock feed and residual accounted for about 57 percent
of the total domestic use of these four feed grains and
for 46 percent of total use. NASS publishes estimates
of feed grain production in its monthly Crop
Production reports. Stock estimates are included in
its quarterly stock reports.
Feed grains are processed into a number of food and
nonfood products. Corn, for example, is processed into
many food and nonfood products, often in the same manufacturing
process. Some products, like cornstarch, are used by both
food and nonfood industries in further manufacturing.
ERS estimates food and industrial use from census data
and other sources. The nonfood use of feed grains includes
quantities for processing into beverages and industrial
alcohols, industrial starches, and for seed and feed.
About 83 percent of the starch production is purchased
for industrial uses.
Use of oats and barley for food is derived from Census
Bureau reports on production of final products, and industry
estimates augment these reports. Feed grains and rice
used for alcoholic beverages are estimated from U.S. Department
of Treasury data.
Per capita disappearance data for grain products are
reported for several levels in the manufacturing process.
In the balance sheets, food use is presented on a grain-equivalent
basis. These are inexact estimates of food available
for consumption. Wheat flour and rice data are measured
at the point of milling and include food use in all forms,
whether purchased directly or consumed as bread, cereal,
or other processed products.
Data on the production of some processed grain products
are available from the Census of Manufacturers. To derive
estimates of the food available for consumption, ERS adjusts
the production figures to account for imports and exports.
Products estimated in this manner include corn flour and
meal, and hominy. The data are interpolated between 5-year
census intervals. In the ERS per capita availability data,
grain products include wheat flour, rye flour, rice, barley
products, and corn products.
See 2 Amber Waves articles Will
2005 Be the Year of the Whole Grain? and Americans'
Whole-Grain Consumption Below Guidelines.
Also see an Amber Waves article Consumer
Preferences Change Wheat Flour Use.
Added Sugar and Sweeteners
Since 1941, ERS has estimated annual U.S. total and
per capita availability of caloric sweeteners. The data
series comprises dry-weight availability estimates of
refined cane and beet sugar, corn sweeteners, honey, and
edible syrups.
The estimates are based on deliveries of sweeteners
by processors, refiners, and importers to U.S. food and
beverage manufacturers, institutional users, wholesalers,
and retailers. Food and beverage manufacturers use the
sweeteners in processed products ranging from candy and
soft drinks, catsup, yogurt, peanut butter, and boxed
rice mixes. Food wholesalers and retailers distribute
refined sugar, honey, maple syrup, and molasses for individual
and household use.
ERS relies on estimates of refined cane and beet sugar
deliveries published by USDA's Farm Service Agency (FSA)
in Sweetener
Market Data. These estimates include sugar refined
from domestic and imported raw sugar as well as refined
sugar imports. As required by law, all sugar beet processors
and sugarcane refiners in the United States and Puerto
Rico provide FSA with monthly reports on deliveries of
refined sugar. USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service provides
FSA with estimates of refined sugar imports.
ERS estimates deliveries of corn sweeteners (high-fructose
corn syrup, glucose, and dextrose) for domestic food and
beverage uses (excluding nonfood uses), using information
from industry contacts, consulting firms, and Census Bureau
import data.
ERS divides total deliveries of various sweeteners by
total U.S. population to estimate per capita deliveries.
Estimates of per capita delivery help determine whether
Americans, on average, are consuming more or less added
sugars over time.
See an Amber Waves article High-Fructose
Corn Syrup Usage May be Leveling Off.
Also see an Amber Waves article Behind the Data:
Estimating
Consumption of Caloric Sweeteners.
Coffee, Tea, and Cocoa
Except for small quantities of coffee grown in Hawaii,
the United States does not commercially grow coffee, tea,
or cocoa. Thus, imports supply virtually all U.S. needs
for these tropical products. Since stocks data for coffee,
tea, and cocoa are no longer available, supply and disappearance
tables for these items include only net changes in stock
levels rather than estimated beginning and ending stock
levels as previously shown. The net change in stocks is
estimated as a residual.
ERS estimates coffee supply by adding Hawaiian production
and U.S. imports. Food availability, as a proxy for consumption,
is estimated by adding domestic roastings and net imports
of roasted and instant coffee. The balance sheet is reported
on a green bean weight basis. Net imports of roasted coffee
are converted at 1.19 pounds of green beans for 1 pound
of roasted coffee. Instant coffee is converted at 2.5
pounds of green beans for 1 pound of instant coffee. Larger
conversion factors were used in earlier years when the
processing of instant coffee was less efficient. Per capita
availability data are published on a green bean weight
and retail weight basis. Retail weight is the roasted
or instant weight as sold in retail stores.
Per capita availability data for all tea is on a leaf-equivalent
basis. It takes about 2.5 pounds of tea leaves to make
1 pound of instant soluble tea. The supply of tea, which
is based on U.S. imports, includes all forms of black
tea, tea bags, instant tea, and tea mixes. Herbal teas
are excluded. Disappearance is derived from the difference
between imports and exports because there are no stock
data for tea. This measure tends to fluctuate more than
tea consumption would be expected to fluctuate because
imports tend to be erratic. Therefore, ERS estimates tea
availability by subtracting exports from imports and assuming
that disappearance for each year is equivalent to a 3-year
moving average of imports minus exports.
ERS estimates supply and disappearance of cocoa (bean
equivalent), using import data for product forms such
as beans, chocolate liquor, cocoa butter, cocoa powder,
and sweetened products. It is assumed that 1 pound of
unsweetened chocolate is obtained from 1.25 pounds of
cocoa beans. Chocolate liquor contains about 53 percent
cocoa butter (fat) and 47 percent cocoa powder (nonfat
solids). Cocoa powder is converted to a bean equivalent,
using a factor of 1.18, and cocoa butter, using a factor
of 1.33.
Cocoa bean availability is estimated as the U.S. annual
cocoa bean grind, plus net imports of semi-processed products
(unsweetened chocolate, cocoa powder, cocoa butter) and
consumer products. Per capita cocoa availability is published
for both a whole-bean and chocolate liquor basis, which
is 80 percent of the weight of the beans. Retail weight
is the weight of the chocolate liquor.
See an Amber Waves article Coffee
Consumption Over the Last Century.
Miscellaneous Beverages
All beverage data are presented in gallons per capita.
ERS converts fluid milk and juice data from pounds to
gallons, using factors from ERS's Weights,
Measures, and Conversion Factors for Agricultural Commodities
and Their Products. Coffee is converted to fluid equivalents
on the basis of 60 6-oz. cups per pound of regular roasted
coffee and 187.5 6-oz. cups per pound of instant coffee.
ERS assumes a conversion rate of 200 6-oz. cups per pound
of tea leaf equivalent.
Per capita data on distilled liquor, wine, and beer are
obtained from the Distilled Spirits Council of the United
States, Inc., the Beer Institute, and the Wine Institute.
Data for carbonated soft drinks (1947-2003) are from
the Census of Manufactures, replacing data previously
provided by the Beverage Marketing Corporation of New
York. At their request, ERS has removed the Beverage Marketing
Corporation’s data series on carbonated soft drinks,
bottled water, fruit drinks, and vegetable juices from
the website and thus no longer provides this data in the
Food Availability (Per Capita) Data System.
Spices and Herbs
Most U.S. supplies of herbs and spices are derived from
net imports (imports less exports) of over 20 spices plus
a miscellaneous group, as reported by the Census Bureau.
The remaining supply comes from the domestic production
of mustard seed and dried chile peppers. Small amounts
of domestic production of other spices are not included
in the total. ERS assumes that all annual production is
consumed the following year, with no allowance for changes
in stocks of imported spices because there are no estimates
of stocks.
Written by ERS commodity analysts (Mark Ash, Allen Baker,
Don Blayney, Nathan Childs, Erik Dohlman, Steve Haley,
David Harvey, Andy Jerardo, Keithly Jones, Gary Lucier,
Jim Miller, Ken Nelson, Agnes Perez, Susan Pollack, Fawzi
Taha, and Gary Vocke) and by Steve Koplin from NMFS for
seafood. Parts of this documentation are adapted from
the 1989 edition of Major Statistical Series of the
U.S. Department of Agriculture: Consumption and Use of
Agricultural Products.
For more information, see Related
Resources, Questions
& Answers, and Glossary.
Download Excel spreadsheets of the Food
Availability data and Loss-Adjusted
Food Availability data.
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