Nonmetro Black Migration Reverses Trends of Earlier Decades
Calvin
L. Beale
The migration of Blacks out of the rural South was one of the most
dramatic population trends of the 20th century. Between 1940 and
1970, about 4 million Blacks (out of an average annual base of less
than 11 million) left the South altogether, while large numbers
also moved from the countryside into southern cities. With farming
no longer the major employment of Blacks who have remained in the
rural South, what are the more recent patterns since the end of
the large midcentury migration?
From 1965 to 1995, the most significant change in Black migration
from southern nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) counties was a major drop
in the number and proportion that moved to the North or West. From
1965 to 1970, near the end of the period of peak outmigration, 46
percent of Blacks leaving the nonmetro South went to the North or
West. But by 1985-90, there was a small net flow of Blacks back
to the nonmetro South from the North and West, and by 1990-95, only
13 percent of Blacks leaving the nonmetro South elected to go to
other regions, as most settled in southern metropolitan (metro)
areas instead.
Although people moving in opposite directions may offset each other
in numbers, they are not necessarily alike in characteristics. From
1985 to 1995, Black migration led to a net loss of college-educated
Blacks from the nonmetro South, as only half as many college graduates
came in as moved out. At the same time, 11 percent more Blacks who
had not finished high school moved into the nonmetro South than
moved away. Thus, the loss of college graduates and the arrival
of more people with limited education slowed the educational advance
of the nonmetro Black population.
Given the educational makeup of migrants, it is not surprising
that the 1990 poverty rate of Blacks who had moved into the nonmetro
South from 1985 to 1990 nearly equaled that of nonmetro residents
who had stayed put during that time. For both newly arrived and
longstanding nonmetro Blacks, two-fifths lived in households with
poverty-level incomes, three times the rate of the Nation as a whole
(13 percent). Blacks who moved away from the nonmetro South between
1985 and 1990 had slightly lower poverty levels than those who did
not move, reflecting both the outmigrants' higher schooling and
the steadier, better paid jobs in their metro destinations.
Although migration data are not yet available from the 2000 Census,
we know that in the 1990s the southern nonmetro Black population
rose by 11 percent, versus just 1.4 percent in the 1980s. This trend
suggests that many more Blacks are judging the nonmetro South favorably
as a place to live than have done so in the past.