One in four nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) counties lost
population between 1990 and 2000. Many of these counties have
been losing population for decades. Over half of "farming-dependent"
counties, where farming accounted for at least 20 percent of earnings
in 1987-89, had fewer residents in 2000 than in 1990. The 565 farming-dependent
counties represent about a quarter of all nonmetro, or rural, counties,
but they comprise nearly two-thirds of the counties with population
losses of over 5 percent in 1990-2000.
Declining farm employment is often cited as the reason that these
counties have been losing population. But recent ERS research suggests
that the drawback for such counties is less their agriculture than
their remoteness and thin settlement, together with a lack of natural
amenities. Natural amenities, including varied topography, lakes
and ocean shore, sunny winters, and temperate summers, are a magnet
for population and tourism.
Optimal conditions for most types of farmingflat and unbroken
land, wet winters, and hot, humid summersare not usually associated
with the natural amenities that attract new residents. Thus, counties
with low scores on the natural amenity scale tend to have extensive
cropland but little recreation and second home development.
Young adults tend to move away from thinly settled, remote rural
counties. Without natural amenities, these counties did not attract
enough young families and retirees in the 1990s to make up for the
loss of young adults. Over 80 percent lost population in 1990-2000.
In contrast, only a small proportion of counties with very high
amenity scores lost population.
Some poorly situated counties did gain population in the 1990s,
often thanks to industrial agriculture, new Native American casinos,
recreation and retirement around lakes, and new prisons.