Population Dynamics Are Changing the Profile of
Rural Areas
An influx of retirees
and ethnic populations brings both challenges and
benefits to small-town America.
Carol A. Jones,
William Kandel,
and Timothy
Parker
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Nonmetro
America is less ethnically diverse and
older than the rest of the country,
though demographic trends indicate some
changes lie ahead. |
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Nonmetro
populations will continue to be older
than metro populations because a greater
proportion of retirees are moving to
nonmetro counties than to metro counties,
and because older people account for
a larger share of the population in
counties that are losing residents.
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Hispanic
population growth is counteracting persistent
population decline in many rural counties,
especially in the Midwestern and Great
Plains States. |
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| This
article is drawn from . . . |
| The ERS Briefing
Room on Rural
Population and Migration.
Rural
Hispanics at a Glance, by William
Kandel, EIB-8, USDA, Economic Research Service,
December 2005. |
| You
may also be interested in . . . |
| The ERS Briefing
Room on Measuring Rurality.
Recreation,
Tourism, and Rural Well-being, by
Richard J. Reeder and Dennis Brown, ERR-7,
USDA, Economic Research Service, August 2005.
Changes
in the Older Population and Implications for
Rural Areas, by Carolyn C. Rogers,
RDRR-90, USDA, Economic Research Service,
February 2000. |
Rural Americans can be Norwegian
bachelor farmers. They can also be Hispanic meatpackers,
Indian computer programmers, or recently retired
doctors focusing on their golf game. Rural populations
are changing. Patterns of migration, in tandem with
the age structure and ethnic composition of the
nonmetro population, will influence future development
patterns. While today’s nonmetro America is
less ethnically diverse and a bit older than the
rest of the country, several population trends are
increasing rural ethnic diversity and further increasing
the rural share of the elderly.
For half a century or more, youth
have moved out of farming-dependent areas to the
cities. This longstanding trend has led to a rural
age structure that yields more deaths than births.
Such “natural decrease” further skews
the population toward the elderly. As a result,
schools and businesses are closing in some areas
due to lack of students and customers.
In contrast, retirees are moving
to some rural areas rich in natural and cultural
amenities, such as those with proximity to ocean,
lakes, or mountains, or within driving distance
of urban areas. This in-migration has created new
business opportunities, especially in recreation
and retirement services, as well as new challenges
associated with managing growth. Baby-boom aging
nationwide will increase the elderly share of the
population in both metro and nonmetro counties,
but it will heighten the concentrations of elderly
residents in current high-elderly areas.
At the other end of the age distribution,
Hispanics, many of whom are foreign-born, are settling
in nonmetro counties, taking jobs in farming, construction,
and manufacturing. Foreign-born population growth—fueled
by international migration and reinforced by a younger
population and higher fertility rates—has
mitigated and in some cases reversed the long-term
patterns of population decline and aging populations
in many Midwestern and Great Plains counties. At
the same time, Hispanic, Asian, and other international
inmigration is creating a need for bilingual teachers,
nurses, and other service providers to educate and
care for an increasingly diverse and youthful population
in these areas.
Concentrations of Elderly
Higher Than Average in Many Nonmetro Areas
Of the 50 million people living
in nonmetro counties in 2005, just under 7.5 million
were age 65 and older. The difference between nonmetro
and metro shares of the elderly is not dramatic
on a national level (15 percent versus 12 percent),
but the concentration of nonmetro elderly is much
higher than average in some areas. A quarter of
nonmetro counties have elderly population shares
above 18 percent, reflecting two different population
dynamics: a long-term pattern of net outmigration
of young people from farming-dependent counties,
and the migration of retirees to amenity-rich rural
areas.
Population-loss counties.
The majority of high-elderly counties (288 out of
536) are classified by ERS as population-loss counties
(the number of residents declined in both the 1980s
and the 1990s). The elderly make up 17 percent of
the total population of all nonmetro population-loss
counties. These counties have withstood long-term
outmigration of their youth—particularly in
the Great Plains and the Corn Belt—due to
declining labor needs on the farm and limited alternatives
to farm work. In almost all settings, the propensity
to migrate is highest among 20-30 year olds, and
rural-to-urban migration among young adults typically
outnumbers its urban-to-rural counterstream. Net
outmigration rates peaked in the 1950s and 1960s
and have fluctuated since then, but even during
periods of higher rural growth (such as the 1990s),
outmigration exceeded inmigration among young adults.
Historically, net outmigration
was not as severe in the South and the East, though
farm labor requirements diminished there, too, due
to dramatic productivity increases in the sector.
However, these regions developed work in manufacturing
and services to offset the job losses in farming.
Plus they have more cities offering employment opportunities
within commuting distance for rural people.
Retirement-destination
counties. Among the remaining high-elderly
counties, more than half (141) are classified by
ERS as retirement-destination counties (the number
of residents 60 and older grew by 15 percent or
more between 1990 and 2000 due to inmigration).
While Florida remains very popular with retirees,
clusters of retirement counties have developed in
the Upper Great Lakes, the Ozark Mountains, the
Texas Hill country, the Great Smoky Mountains, and
throughout the Southwest. The elderly make up at
least 18 percent of the population in all retirement-destination
counties.
These patterns of high elderly
concentrations in selected county types will be
reinforced with the aging of the baby boom generation.
The number of people turning 65 each year reached
a low point in the first half of this decade, reflecting
the small birth cohorts during the Great Depression
in the 1930s, but is poised to increase rapidly
beginning in 2007.
If the current nonmetro population
were to remain in nonmetro areas, growth rates of
the elderly from so-called aging-in-place alone
would triple among the nonmetro older population.
The growth rates would rise from 6 percent this
decade to 18 percent in the 2010s as the baby-boom
population born in the late 1940s and 1950s reaches
65.
Further, as adults become empty-nesters
and retirees, their propensity to migrate to rural
settings increases. Baby boomers exhibited a marked
affinity for moving to rural destinations during
the dot.com boom of the 1990s, long before reaching
traditional retirement ages. The trend will likely
resume, since the first boomers reached their 60th
birthday in 2006.
Aging and Economic Development
Challenges Vary by Region
Because population change due
to aging-in-place and inmigration are concentrated
in different areas, high-elderly nonmetro counties
are becoming increasingly heterogeneous. Retiree-age
newcomers to nonmetro areas tend to be better educated,
wealthier, and more likely to be married than living
alone, compared with the nonmetro aging-in-place
population. In addition, they often relocate to
nonmetro counties that contain, or are adjacent
to, large cities providing a broader range of services
important to this age group. Such areas often benefit
from growth, as retirees boost the tax base and
help sustain local businesses. On the other hand,
areas with recreation development or increasing
urban influence undergo increased land and housing
costs, sprawl-like settlement patterns, and traffic
congestion. Strains on public finances arise when
new service and infrastructure costs outrun increased
tax revenues.
In the nonmetro counties affected
mostly by aging-in-place, older residents generally
have less income, lower educational attainment,
and higher dependence on Social Security income.
Health services are less accessible, and fewer health
care providers offer specialized services. Attracting
doctors, nurses, and other service professionals
is difficult for many rural areas. Generally, it
is not cost effective to locate specialized facilities
in sparsely populated, remote areas. These locational
disadvantages are hard to overcome in areas still
losing working-age persons and confronting tax base
erosion.
Racial and Ethnic Nonmetro
Totals Mask Local Diversity
The minority share of the nonmetro
population (18 percent) was half the metro share
(36 percent) in 2005. Though Hispanics now make
up a larger share of the metro population than Blacks,
Blacks remain the largest nonmetro minority group.
Native Americans are the only ethnic group with
greater representation in nonmetro than in metro
counties. Primarily metro residents, Asian Americans
have the smallest nonmetro share of the four groups.
Yet, national averages mask the
variety in racial and ethnic patterns across nonmetro
areas, where local minority populations tend to
be dominated by one or two groups. Examples across
several U.S. regions include:
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Blacks in Jefferson County,Mississippi,
make up 87 percent of the population. There
are pronounced concentrations of Blacks that
remain in parts of the nonmetro Southeast, despite
vast migration to Northern cities in the first
two-thirds of the 20th century.
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Almost all of the 50,000 residents
of Starr County, Texas, are Hispanic. Nonmetro
Hispanics have concentrated in the Southwest
for centuries; more recent immigrants have settled
in metro areas, notably Los Angeles, Miami,
Chicago, and New York. In the past two decades,
however, native- and foreign-born Hispanics
have settled in new nonmetro destinations, including
counties in the rural Midwest and the Southeast.
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In South Dakota, 95 percent
of Shannon County’s 12,500 residents are
Native American. Though small in overall numbers,
Native Americans are a majority in some communities,
particularly in the Northern Great Plains, Alaska,
and the Southwest.
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Asians of single or mixed
racial backgrounds are the majority of Kauai
County’s population in Hawaii. Asian Americans
have concentrated in urban areas, but are also
present in some rural areas, especially in Hawaii,
the Pacific Northwest, and, increasingly, the
Midwest. More educated Asian populations have
settled in nonmetro college communities across
the country.
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Brown County, Minnesota,
is 97 percent non-Hispanic White. Although two-thirds
of its residents claim German ancestry, less
than 4 percent speak German. Many nonmetro areas
are overwhelmingly non-Hispanic White, particularly
in the Northeast and Midwest. This is the legacy
of early settlement patterns and the selection
of primarily urban destinations by 20th-century
immigrants.
Broader Dispersion of
Foreign-Born Residents Is Increasing Diversity
Although non-Hispanic Whites make
up 82 percent of the nonmetro population, diversity
is increasing more rapidly than in previous decades.
The growth of the nonmetro non-Hispanic White population
between 2000 and 2005 was 1.0 percent, compared
with the overall nonmetro rate of 2.2 percent. This
sluggish growth is a result of the relatively older
age structure and small family size of non-Hispanic
Whites. The two minority groups having significant
shares of foreign-born residents have the highest
growth rates. In nonmetro counties, the Hispanic
growth rate was 18 percent over 2000-05, and the
Asian growth rate was 7.1 percent.
The nonmetro Native American population
grew 3.8 percent between 2000 and 2005, due mostly
to above-average birth rates. A modest Black growth
rate of 1.2 percent is also primarily due to natural
increase.
Foreign-born immigrants add a
relatively new dynamic to rural population growth:
between 2000 and 2005, immigration accounted for
almost 30 percent of nonmetro population growth.
In fact, inmigration lowered population loss in
almost 800 (78 percent) of the 1,027 nonmetro counties
experiencing population loss during this period—roughly
half of all nonmetro counties. In addition, it prevented
population loss from occurring in 83 (8 percent)
of the 1,024 nonmetro counties that gained population
during this period.
Almost half of all Asians and
a third of all Hispanics in nonmetro counties were
born outside the United States. In 2000, the nonmetro
foreign-born included 250,000 Asians, 670,000 non-Hispanic
Whites, and 1,025,000 Hispanics. The Hispanic and
Asian influx is due in part to changes in U.S. immigration
laws in the mid-1960s that ended a bias toward immigration
from European countries, and also from a growing
demand for low-skill labor. Though Hispanics have
been concentrated in metro areas or in the Southwest
and Asians have been concentrated in metro areas,
migration is now becoming more geographically dispersed
as new economic opportunities, such as food processing
jobs, open up in nonmetro areas.
Another factor in the higher growth
rates associated with immigrant populations is their
relative youth and slightly higher fertility rates.
Because immigrants tend to be young adults, they
are more likely to form families and have children.
On average, nonmetro non-Hispanic Whites were about
14 years older than nonmetro Hispanics in 2005.
Over 20 percent of non-Hispanic Whites are age 60
or older, versus less than 10 percent of Hispanics.
Higher birth rates contribute to larger under-20
cohorts for Blacks, Native Americans, and Hispanics,
compared with non-Hispanic Whites.
Rural Areas Face Diverging
Service and Infrastructure Demands
Hispanic population growth has
counteracted long-term population decline in many
rural counties, especially in the Midwestern and
Great Plains States where natural decrease and outmigration
by young adults have been reducing population in
some areas since the 1950s or earlier. A disproportionate
share of the Hispanic growth in new rural destinations
is from foreign-born residents.
New and diverse residents from
abroad are revitalizing small towns economically
and demographically. At the same time, their presence
signals changes in local economic structure and
raises concerns about barriers to assimilation and
changing and increasing demands for social services.
Nonmetro Hispanics have less education,
on average, and are more likely to be employed in
lower skilled sectors such as agriculture, construction,
and manufacturing. As a result, they tend to have
lower incomes, are more likely to live in poverty,
and less likely to own homes than non-Hispanic Whites.
Their rural neighbors, who are
mostly non-Hispanic Whites, will retire from the
workforce in large numbers in the coming decades.
The different age distributions between these two
groups imply diverging social service needs and
societal contributions. More elderly non-Hispanic
Whites will need retirement communities, nursing
homes, and home care, while young minority families
will need schools, jobs, child care, and health
services suited for children and young adults. Age
distribution differences also imply that the integration
and mobility of new rural residents and their children
are critical to the economic and social well-being
of many rural communities.
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