Example:
Change the number
of cases
Some potential uses of the
Calculator include determining the cost of
illness for a State or community where the
incidence of STEC O157 is known, estimating
the cost of illness due to an STEC O157 outbreak,
or updating the cost of STEC O157 when a new
estimate of annual cases becomes available.
For example, ERS’s
cost estimate for STEC O157 of $431.4 million
(in 2005 dollars) is based on the Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention’s
(CDC) 1999 estimate of 73,480 annual cases.
Newly released data from CDC's FoodNet program
for monitoring foodborne illness show a 29-percent
decrease in the incidence of lab-diagnosed
STEC O157 cases in 2005 compared with the
1996-98 baseline period. A calculator user
could assume that the number of annual cases
has decreased by the same percentage. Entering
this assumption (which is equivalent to 52,171
cases) into the Calculator, without changing
any other assumptions, yields a new cost estimate
of $304.5 million (in 2005 dollars). |
Example: Calculate costs of contaminated ground
beef
The Calculator could also
be used to estimate the cost of STEC O157
illnesses due to a specific food vehicle,
such as ground beef. The 2001 risk assessment
conducted by USDA’s Food Safety and
Inspection Service estimated that ground beef
contaminated with E. coli O157: H7 caused
a median of 19,000 illnesses each year, distributed
across a range of health outcomes.
The outcomes include 17,200
cases who didn’t see a physician; 1,400
cases who visited a physician; 310 nonfatal
cases who were hospitalized without developing
the serious complication, hemolytic uremic
syndrome (HUS); 80 nonfatal HUS cases; and
10 fatal HUS cases.
Plugging these outcome estimates
into the Calculator and changing no other
assumptions puts the estimated cost of STEC
O157 infections due to contaminated ground
beef at $71.4 million (in 2005 dollars).
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