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Title: Efficient Institutions for Encouraging Private Sector Cooperation in Preventing Unintended Imports of Invasive Species in Agricultural Commodities
Principal Investigators: Linda Fernandez and Glenn Sheriff
Affiliation: University of California-Riverside, Riverside, CA, and Columbia University, New York, NY
Award: $196,000
The project will examine mechanisms that may prevent the
import of invasive species in agricultural commodities
by encouraging foreign, private-sector exporters to reveal
information about the presence of invasive species in cargo.
Such mechanisms include random inspections, compensatory
payments, early warning systems, and offshore pre-clearance.
The research method is applied game theory, deriving perfect
Bayesian equilibria for dynamic games of asymmetric information
between a government agency and a group of private exporters
with information hidden from the agency.
Title: Economic Efficiency and Equity of Alternative
Government Programs for Invasive Species: A Decision
Model of Government Action for Avian Influenza and Exotic
Newcastle Disease in Poultry
Principal Investigator: Keith Coble
Affiliation: Mississippi State University, Mississippi
State, MS
Award: $180,000
The study will conceptually and empirically evaluate circumstances
under which government agencies could use indemnification,
insurance, and/or assistance with management programs to
address animal disease outbreaks, focusing the analysis
on avian influenza and exotic Newcastle disease in poultry.
The researchers will use a moral hazard model of behavior,
subjective probabilities from industry experts and producers,
and anticipated economic costs of infestation to delineate
government responses and simulate likely outcomes.
Title: Encouraging Cooperation Between Commercial Producers
and Residential Users of an Invasive Species Host: Designing
Collective Pest Management Institutions for the Olive
Fruit Fly in California
Principal Investigator: Rachael Goodhue
Affiliation: University of California-Davis, Davis, CA
Award: $175,000
The researchers will use a bio-economic model to examine
the economic efficiency of alternative management strategies
for the olive fruit fly, a pest spreading in California.
The project will consider pest mobility between commercial
groves, abandoned groves, and ornamental trees on public
and private property, as well as markets for olives and
olive oil. The researchers will also examine the incentives
that regional organizations create for homeowners and commercial
growers to effectively manage pests.
Title: Efficient Management Strategies for a Contagious
Animal Disease Outbreak: Probability Distributions of
Economic Impacts from Foot-and-Mouth Disease
Principal Investigator: Dustin Pendell
Affiliation: Colorado State University, Fort Collins,
CO
Award: $142,000
The project will analyze the selection of economically
efficient contingency plans for control and management
of foot-and-mouth disease, given probability distributions
of economic value from alternative plans. The research
team will determine the study region beyond which 95 percent
of outbreaks would not spread, estimate the effects of
disease outbreaks under alternative scenarios with disease
spread models, develop distributions of welfare measures
with an equilibrium displacement model, and show preferred
strategies by analyzing the distributions of welfare measures
using stochastic efficiency with respect to a function.
Title: Micro-behavior and the Spatial-Dynamics of Invasions
Principal Investigator: James Wilen
Affiliation: University of California-Davis, Davis, CA
Award: $135,000
The project will develop spatial-dynamic models of bioinvasions
linked to spatially explicit economic models of agent behavior
for people whose land is invaded or about to be invaded
by weeds. The researchers will use the models to identify
optimal patterns and extent of control efforts for yellow
starthistle in California, and evaluate institutions or
incentives for optimal levels, location, and timing of
control. They will survey ranchers, public agencies, and
road managers to characterize factors influencing land
managers' control decisions.
Title: Prioritization of Sanitary Restrictions Facing
U.S. Exports of Bovine, Porcine, and Ovine for Determination
of Surveillance Needs
Principal Investigator: Philip Paarlberg
Affiliation: Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN
Award: $121,000
This project will quantify the effects of sanitary requirements
facing U.S. exports of live animals, breeding stock, and
germplasm, and prioritize livestock disease surveillance
efforts for export purposes. The researchers will use an
export requirements database developed by APHIS, a quarterly
U.S. agricultural sector model focusing on livestock, and
results of other economic studies. APHIS epidemiologists
will evaluate the scientific merit and the probability
of imposition of sanitary barriers.
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