Summary of Projections
Macroeconomic Assumptions
U.S. Crops
U.S. Livestock
U.S. Agricultural Sector Measures
Global Agricultural Trade
Summary of Projections: February 2004 Baseline
The USDA Baseline consists of 10-year projections for agriculture,
assuming continuation of current farm law as well as specific conditions
for the economy, the weather, and the global situation. The baseline
covers commodities, trade, and aggregate indicators such as farm
income and food prices. The projections were prepared in October
through December 2003 prior to the diagnosis of a case of bovine
spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in an adult Holstein cow in Washington
State in December 2003.
Stronger domestic and international growth, following the economic
slowdown of 2001 through early 2003, provides a favorable demand
setting for the U.S. agricultural sector. Despite declines from
a recent peak, a relatively strong U.S. dollar (by historical standards)
and trade competition from countries such as Brazil, Argentina,
and the Black Sea region are constraining factors on U.S. exports
for some agricultural commodities. Nonetheless, improving economic
growth, particularly in developing countries, provides a foundation
for gains in global consumption and trade, U.S. agricultural exports,
and farm commodity prices. Domestic demand also increases for meat,
feeds, horticultural products, corn used in ethanol production,
and food use of rice. As a result, market prices and cash receipts
rise, which help to improve the financial condition of the U.S.
agricultural sector. Consumer food prices are projected to continue
a long-term trend of rising less than the general inflation rate.
The trend in consumer food expenditures towards a larger share for
meals eaten away from home is expected to continue.
Agricultural export markets are important for sustaining prices
and farm revenues. Exports account for a growing share of U.S. farm
cash receipts, and are a key factor in determining gains in gross
farm income.
Definition of country groups
Agricultural trade depends on the economic prosperity of consumers
throughout the world.
- Economic gains and population growth in developing countries
will generate most of the increase in global food demand over
the next decade.
- Economic growth in developing countries is important for global
agricultural demand because many developing countries have incomes
at levels where consumers diversify their diets to include more
meats and other higher valued food products, and where consumption
and imports of food and feed are particularly responsive to income
changes.
- Projected growth in the transition economies (countries of the
former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe) of over 4
percent in 2004-13 is significant in comparison to the economic
contraction of the 1990s. Economic reforms undertaken to shift
to market economies and European Union (EU) enlargement contribute
to the improved growth prospects. This growth will increase consumer
income and thereby raise demand for agricultural goods, such as
livestock products, for which demand is relatively responsive
to income changes.
- Although declining somewhat in the near term, the U.S. dollar
is assumed to stay at historically strong levels throughout the
projections as financial market returns attract financial flows
into the United States. The strength of the dollar is a constraining
factor for U.S. agricultural competitiveness and export growth.
Competition in global agricultural markets will continue to be
strong, with expanding production in a number of foreign countries.
- For example, increasing exports of soybeans and soybean meal
from South America reflect a continuing conversion of land to
crop production uses, particularly in Brazil.
- Competition in global wheat trade continues with traditional
exporters (Australia, Argentina, Canada, and the EU) as well as
with more-recent exporters from the Black Sea region.
- Brazil and Canada provide competition to U.S. pork exports,
while U.S. exports of broilers face strong competition from Brazil
and Thailand.
The value of U.S. agricultural exports, which fell from a record
of almost $60 billion in fiscal year 1996 to $49.1 billion in 1999,
is projected to exceed the prior record in 2005 through 2013.
- U.S. agricultural exports face continued strong trade competition
throughout the baseline period. A relatively strong U.S. dollar
by historical standards, despite declines from a recent peak,
also is a constraining factor on U.S. agricultural exports.
- Nonetheless, strengthening world economic growth in the longer
run, particularly in developing countries, provides a foundation
for gains in U.S. agricultural exports, which increase to about
$72 billion by the end of the projections.
- U.S. agricultural imports rise by about the same amount as exports,
with the agricultural trade surplus relatively stable at $10 to
$12 billion during the projection period.
Strengthening market conditions lead to rising prices, increases
in gross farm income, and improvement in the financial condition
of the U.S. agricultural sector. Net farm income declines through
much of the projections period from a high 2003 level, reflecting
lower government payments and adjustments in the cattle sector.
- Gross cash income gradually increases as crop and livestock
receipts increase due to growing domestic and export demands.
- Production expenses are projected to increase at slightly less
than the general inflation rate. Cash operating margins tighten
somewhat, with cash expenses increasing from 75 percent of gross
cash income in 2004 to about 78.5 percent at the end of the projections.
- Government payments become relatively less important over time
as a greater share of gross cash income comes from the marketplace.
- Net farm income projections for the next decade average about
$51 billion, compared to $47.6 billion in the 1990s. Income increases
toward the end of the projections and reaches $51.5 billion in
2013.
- Increasing gross cash income and relatively low interest rates
through the baseline assist in asset accumulation and debt management.
Debt-to-asset ratios decline to about 14 percent in the last several
years of the projections, compared with over 20 percent in the
mid-1980s and 14.7 percent in 2003.
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Macroeconomic Assumptions: February 2004
Baseline
Macroeconomic assumptions underlying the USDA baseline are characterized
by a rebound from the recent U.S. and global slowdown, with a return
to sustained growth at average historical levels beginning in 2005.
The baseline's macroeconomic assumptions were completed in September
2003, incorporating data and other information available at that
time.
The United States and world economies continue to become increasingly
interdependent both through growing trade and through financial
market integration. The United States, as the world's largest economy
with around 30 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) and
the largest capital market, is also the engine of world growth.
Thus, what happens in the United States will continue to play a
large role in determining economic conditions around the world.
However, because of growing economic interdependence, international
macroeconomic conditions affect U.S. consumer incomes, the U.S.
exchange rate, global trade, inflation, and interest rates. All
these factors have major effects on U.S. agriculture.
The baseline assumes that U.S. GDP growth improves in the near
term (increasing to 3.3 percent in 2004 and 3.5 percent in 2005)
as the economy continues to recover from the economic slowdown in
2001 through early 2003. U.S. growth then returns to a longrun
sustainable rate near 3.0 percent in 2006. While there may have
been some overinvestment in technology in the late 1990s, ongoing
U.S. technological advances associated with computing and telecommunications
will provide support for worldwide productivity growth throughout
the 2004-13 projection period. As the U.S. economy recently has
been showing solid growth in investment in new technology, other
economies will follow.
- A similar pattern is expected for global economic growth, with
sustained gains projected in the longer term for most countries
in the world. Despite modest European growth expected in 2004,
most of the world will be moving much closer to normal economic
growth with trend rates in 2006 and beyond. The modest expected
decline in real (adjusted for inflation) oil prices in 2004 will
give an extra boost to Asia and its manufacturing sector, which
is far more dependent on energy for GDP growth than more developed
economies.
- Improved global economic performance combined with continued,
if slowing, population growth is expected to strengthen food demand
in the baseline.
- Developing countries play an increasingly important role in
global food demand growth in the baseline and become a more important
destination for U.S. exports. Relatively high population and income
growth, along with large food responsiveness to income growth
in these countries, underlie this projection.
Definition of country groups
World economic growth is projected to average 2.3 percent annually
between 2001 and 2005, before increasing to approximately a 3.2-percent
average between 2006 and 2013.
- Increased global purchasing power and population growth are
essential for gains in U.S. exports.
- Consumption and imports of food and feed in developing countries
are particularly responsive to income changes. As incomes rise
in these countries, consumers generally diversify their diets,
moving away from staple foods to include more meat, fruits, vegetables,
and processed foods. These consumption shifts increase import
demand for feedstuffs and high-value food products. For the United
States, this has included increases in meat and processed-food
exports.
Definition of country groups
Developed economies are projected to grow at rates similar to those
of the 1990s, averaging 2.5 percent in 2006 and beyond.
- The adoption of the euro continues to enhance cross-border trade
and investment within the European Union (EU). Enlargement to
include countries of Central and Eastern Europe implies closer
integration, creating more trade and investment opportunities.
- In spite of this, the EU does not grow as rapidly as the United
States because lingering structural rigidities, particularly in
labor markets, constrain growth.
- Japan continues to face significant economic problems, largely
the result of its ongoing banking problems and persistent deflation.
Japan's share of world GDP is expected to decline to less than
13 percent by 2013, down from about 18 percent in 1991.
Definition of country groups
Economic growth in developing countries is projected at a 5.1 percent
annual rate in 2006-13. Long-term growth in the transition economies
(countries of the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe)
is projected at around 4.2 percent annually, a significant reversal
from the contraction of their economies in the 1990s. Furthermore,
strong growth performance throughout the developing and transition
countries should encourage relative stability throughout the regions.
- Significant long-term growth exceeding 4 percent is projected
for Latin America. This will attract foreign capital inflows,
sustaining growth.
- Growth in East and Southeast Asia is projected to be about 6
percent for the next decade, but will still be below the very
strong average growth of over 7 percent in the 1990s.
- China's economic growth has been consistently the strongest
in Asia, and is expected to average around 7 percent over the
next decade.
- Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic all grow near 4.5 percent
due to their successful integration into the global economy and
their accession to the European Union.
- Russia, Ukraine, and the other former Soviet Republics benefit
from their shift to market economies, with annual GDP gains of
more than 4 percent projected for the next decade.
Developing Asia's Growing Importance in Global GDP
Economic growth rates vary from country to country and region
to region, so over time the composition of world GDP changes.
The United States generates around one third of world GDP
despite having less than 5 percent of global population. This
means that, on average, U.S. residents are more than six times
as well off as the average citizen around the world. Because
of high productivity growth, the United States continues to
grow in line with global growth despite being a mature economy.
On the other hand, other developed countries, particularly
Japan and Europe, have not been growing as fast as the global
average and are therefore losing world GDP share. Nonetheless,
even at the end of the 10-year baseline projection period,
the 900 million citizens of the developed countries (out of
a projected world population of more than 7 billion) will
still be generating around 70 percent of world GDP.
If developed countries outside of the United States are losing
global GDP shares, then where are shares increasing? The big
gains have been made in developing Asia. These countries are
projected to roughly quadruple their GDP share between 1971
and 2013, from around 3 percent to more than 12 percent. The
high growth rates of developing Asian countries will continue
to imply increasing shares of the world economy.
All other regions of the world have maintained stable, but
relatively low shares of the global economy. Latin America,
the Middle East, and Africa combined have only slightly more
than a 10-percent share of world GDP. The transition economies
(the former Soviet Union and the Central and Eastern European
countries) have lost share of world GDP, moving from more
than 5.5 percent in the early 1980s to around 3 percent in
2000. Renewed growth in the transition countries will again
begin to raise their share of world GDP. However, even at
the end of the projection period, they are only likely to
generate slightly more than 3.5 percent of world GDP.
Definition of country groups
Implications
The changing composition of world GDP has several important
implications for U.S. and world agriculture. The relatively
strong economic growth in developing Asia has resulted in
a larger share of U.S. farm sector exports going to these
markets, reflecting increased demand for agricultural products.
Projected strong growth in the baseline implies that developing
Asia will continue to become more important for U.S. agriculture.
A second implication reflects the increasing energy dependence
of developing Asian economies. In contrast, developed economies,
particularly the United States and Australia, have become
relatively less energy dependent. Economic growth in developing
Asia is concentrated in energy intensive manufacturing, while
growth in the United States has been largely in the less energy-intensive
service sector. As a result, an increase in output in the
developing Asian economy would require more energy than would
a similar increase in the U.S. economy. If developing Asian
growth is severely restricted by tight or expensive energy
supplies, growth in U.S. agricultural exports to Asia could
slow.
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Definition of country groups
Slowing population growth around the world will be a major factor
that constrains the growth of agricultural demand over the next
decade and beyond. Historically, about 70 percent of increases in
food use have been related to population growth, leaving about 30
percent driven by increasing incomes and other factors. With population
growth slowing in the projections, income growth will become a relatively
more important factor underlying food and agricultural demand growth.
- World population growth declines from an annual rate of 1.7
percent in the 1980s to an average of about 1.1 percent per year
during the projection period.
- Developed and transition economies have very low projected rates
of population growth in the baseline, 0.4 and 0.1 percent respectively.
The projected population growth rate for the United States is
the highest among developed countries, in part reflecting immigration.
- Population growth rates in developing economies decline by almost
half between the 1970s and the projection period, but remain above
those in the developed and transition economies. As a consequence,
the share of world population accounted for by developing countries
continues to increase over the projection period.
- China's population growth rate slows from 1.5 percent per year
in 1981-90 to 0.6 percent in 2006-13. The population growth rate
in India, the world's second most populous nation, is projected
to decline from 2.1 to 1.3 percent per year over the same periods,
but this growth narrows the gap between its population and China's.
- Brazil's population growth rate falls from 2.1 percent per year
in 1981-90 to 1.0 percent annually in 2006-13, and Sub-Saharan
Africa's population growth rate declines from 2.9 to 2.0 percent
per year in the same years.
Where Will Demographics Take the Pacific Food System?
Economic growth and prices are closely monitored drivers
of food demand in the Pacific region (countries in Asia, Oceania,
North America, and South America that touch the Pacific Ocean).
However, demographic changespopulation growth, urbanization,
and changes in age structuremay have more profound long-term
implications for the region's food system.
400 Million More People to Feed
Although the population in the Pacific region is expected
to grow by 400 million people, from 2.6 billion in 2000 to
3.0 billion in 2020, the rate of growth is lower than in regions
like Africa and the Middle East. Since the 1960s, population
growth in the Pacific region as well as globally, has slowed,
marking a shift from the geometric growth rates of previous
decades. Currently, the number of people added to the Pacific
region is declining each year.
Population growth throughout the Pacific region will not
be evenly distributed. By 2020, the largest absolute increase
will occur in China (160 million), followed by Indonesia (60
million) and the United States (50 million). In contrast,
Japan's population will begin to decline in 2007.
While population growth in the Pacific region is slower than
the rest of the world, immigration is relatively more important.
In 2000, 760,000 more people entered the region than exited;
that number is still small relative to the region's average
annual natural increase of about 25 million people.
Population growth will undoubtedly place demands on the Pacific
agri-food system; more people means more food consumption.
But the changing rates and distribution of growth will also
have significant implications. Japan's declining population
implies lower levels of food demand in this affluent nation,
a leading importer of food and agricultural products. More
rapid population and economic growth in developing and middle-income
economies will increase their influence in the Pacific food
system, altering production, consumption, and trade patterns.
Rapid Urban Population Growth
The most significant demographic change in the region
will be the rapid growth of urban populations, which are projected
to grow by over 590 million people between 2000 and 2020,
an increase of about 45 percent, compared to overall population
growth of only 16 percent. Urban growth rates will be the
most rapid in China and Southeast Asia; at intermediate rates
in Latin America, North America, and Oceania; and slowest
in East Asia. China's urban population is expected to grow
by 300 million people in the next 20 years. Urban diets differ
from those in rural areas, largely due to higher incomes and
the substitution of animal products, fruits, and vegetables
for more traditional food staples. Diets in urban areas tend
to be more diverse, in terms of the variety of foods consumed.
Urban dwellers tend to eat away from home more frequently
and consume more convenience foods.
Marketing food products in the Pacific region will increasingly
focus on densely populated urban centers, such as the Hong
Kong-Shenzen-Pearl River Delta area, Shanghai, Jakarta, Bangkok,
Manila, Santiago-Valparaiso, and Lima-Callao. Many of these
urban areas are coastal and have modern port facilities, making
them easily accessible to foreign suppliers. In some instances,
foreign suppliers are more competitive in these coastal urban
markets than inland producers who confront inadequate infrastructure
and cost-raising policies, like tolls, in getting their products
to market.
A Graying Population: Declining Food Demand and a Tax on the Economy
Between 2000 and 2020, average life expectancy in the
Pacific region is expected to rise from 72 to 77 years, and
the median age from 30 to 36 years. The population age 65
and older will increase from 200 million in 2000 to 370 million
in 2020. The Pacific countries with the oldest age structures
are in East Asia, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the
United States. These economies experienced the demographic
transitionthe decline in the fertility and mortality
ratesquite a long time ago, driven by income growth,
medical breakthroughs, healthcare investments, and public
policy.
The changing age structure of the region's population affects
food demand directly and indirectly. One direct effect is
lower food demand. With an aging population, food demand declines,
as activity levels and caloric needs decline. A second direct
effect is change in dietary composition and the frequency
of eating out. According to ERS research, older people eat
more fresh fruit, fish, and eggs and eat out less frequently
than younger people.
The dependent components of population (the young and the
old relative to the working) for most of the high-income economies
are projected to rise over the next two decades due to population
aging. On the other hand, the dependent component for the
lower income economies is projected to decline, providing
an opportunity for these economies to save and invest resources
for other purposes. This may give these economies a "demographic
bonus," or short-term economic boost.
For more information on this topic, see Pacific
Food System Outlook 2003-2004, Where Demographics Will Take
the Food System, Pacific Economic Cooperation Council,
October 2003.
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While there is a depreciation of the U.S. dollar in the near term,
the projected long-term level is high by historical standards. A
strong U.S. dollar reduces U.S. agricultural competitiveness and
constrains growth in exports. This is partially offset by longer
term global economic growth, which increases the demand for U.S.
exports.
- When strong GDP growth returns in the United States, the dollar
will likely appreciate.
- The U.S. dollar stays strong because capital flows into the
United States to take advantage of well-functioning financial
markets, a relatively risk-free environment, and high expected
long-term financial returns.
- U.S. exports of bulk commodities and horticultural products
tend to be the most sensitive agricultural products to the strong
U.S. dollar due to relatively stronger global trade competition.
Definition of country groups
Inflation rates, which came down in the 1990s (except in the transition
economies), are projected to remain low through 2013.
- For developed countries and the world as a whole, inflation
is projected to be 2.5 percent or less.
- For the transition economies, inflation rates in the baseline
come down dramatically from an annual average exceeding 30 percent
in the 1990s, to less than 3.5 percent per year in the projection
period.
- Inflation rates in developing countries are also projected to
fall, from over 7 percent to just over 5 percent. Inflation in
Asia declines to rates comparable to those in developed countries.
Those in Latin America and Africa and the Middle East, while declining,
will remain substantially above inflation rates in the rest of
the world.
- As the U.S. and world economies move solidly into the expansion
phase, inflationary pressures will begin. In response, the Federal
Reserve Board and central banks in other countries are assumed
to raise short term interest rates to prevent an inflationary
spiral. In addition, as world economies grow more rapidly, demand
for credit will rise and further boost interest rates. Finally,
a weaker dollar relative to the yen and the euro will require
U.S. interest rates to rise to continue financing the trade deficit.
However, low inflation will keep interest rates from moving to
the high levels seen in the 1980s.
Oil prices declined in 2001 from the high levels of 2000, but then
moved back up in 2003 as uncertainties in the international oil
market continued from an unstable situation in Iraq and as the economic
expansion in developing Asia, especially in China, boosted oil demand.
Continued growth in these economies will keep oil demand strong
in 2004, but crude oil prices will drop modestly as some new crude
supplies come onto the market. From 2005 forward, oil prices are
projected to rise, but only slightly faster than the general inflation
rate. These projections are generally consistent with the Energy
Information Administration's January 2003 Annual Long Term Outlook.
- New oil discoveries, along with new technologies for finding
and extracting oil, are assumed to allow for substantial growth
in demand without significant energy price inflation.
- Most of the growth in world oil demand will be due to strong
Asian GDP growth, which has relatively high energy dependence.
- Oil prices have historically affected prices of natural gas
and supply conditions for nitrogen-based fertilizer. However,
the links between the oil and natural gas markets have weakened
significantly due to dramatic growth in the demand for natural
gas and deregulation throughout the natural gas supply and demand
system. As a result, prices for natural gas and fertilizer may
be somewhat volatile over the next several years.
Fertilizer imports would rise if natural gas market tightened
The market tightness and price volatility in the natural
gas market seen in the winter of 2000-01 and 2002-03 may well
persist for the medium term, which could have some implications
for the farm sector. Although the direct use of natural gas
on farms is small compared to use of other fuels and electric
power, nitrogen-based fertilizer produced from natural gas
feedstock is of considerable importance in the production
of many crops, such as corn, cotton, and rice.
While the United States has been dependent on natural gas
imports from Mexico and Canada, North America has been largely
self sufficient in natural gas production. The natural gas
market could be tight as demand for this low-polluting fuel
continues to be strong for use in electrical power generation,
industrial production, and crude oil extraction in Canada.
Natural gas imports through shipments of liquefied natural
gas (LNG) have become increasingly important and could provide
some further relief to the demand pressures on prices. However,
there currently are not enough facilities to convert LNG to
natural gas to meet total estimated natural gas demand at
current prices, with several years needed before new LNG conversion
facilities will be available to ease this situation. Thus,
natural gas prices could be high and somewhat volatile over
the next several years.
If natural gas prices rise sharply, some U.S. plants that
produce nitrogen-based fertilizer would shut down. Instead,
the fertilizer company would import enough nitrogenates to
meet its expected marketing needs. As a result, while fertilizer
prices will rise when natural gas prices increase, the availability
of fertilizer imports to augment domestic supplies will limit
the size of nitrogenate price increases.
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More Detailed Data
Baseline Macroeconomic Data
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U.S. Crops: February 2004 Baseline
Improved U.S. and global economic growth, following the slowdown
of 2001-03, provides a favorable demand setting for field crops,
supporting longer run increases in consumption, trade, and prices.
However, a relatively strong U.S. dollar, despite declines from
a recent peak, and trade competition from areas such as Brazil,
Argentina, and the Black Sea region constrain U.S. exports for some
crops.
Baseline assumptions for field crops reflect provisions
of the Farm Security
and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (2002 Farm Act),
which is assumed to continue through the projection period.
The 2002 Farm Act continues planting flexibility provisions,
giving farmers almost complete flexibility in deciding
which crops to plant. Additionally, marketing assistance
loans are continued.
The maximum area in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) was
increased to 39.2 million acres under the 2002 Farm Act, up from
36.4 million acres under the 1996 Farm Act. Under the CRP, farmland
owners submit bids to retire highly erodible and other environmentally
sensitive cropland from production for 10-15 years. CRP enrollment
is designed to enhance environmental quality and improve wildlife
habitat. Farmers receive a cost-share payment to establish a permanent
cover crop and annual rental payments for retiring land and maintaining
specified conservation practices. The expansion of the CRP under
the 2002 Farm Act will reduce land available for crop production
somewhat, with the planting history for about two-thirds of land
in the reserve being for the eight major field crops.
Projected plantings for eight major field crops in the United
States remain relatively stable at 249 to 250 million acres through
much of the baseline, considerably below the high level of over
260 million acres in 1996. Corn, wheat, and soybeans account for
about 86 percent of this acreage. The cropping mix shifts somewhat
more to corn and away from wheat and soybeans, reflecting underlying
growth in demand as seen in price signals and net returns. Yield
gains also contribute to production increases and limit the need
for additional land to be cropped.
- Corn acreage rises gradually through the projections as increasing
export and domestic demands lead to rising prices and net returns.
- Wheat acreage declines to 60 million acres for most of the baseline
as relatively weaker gains in demand are generally met through
gains in yields. Marketing loan benefits augment market revenues
for wheat through most of the projections, keeping net returns
relatively flat and holding land in wheat.
- Soybean plantings initially rise in response to relatively
high prices and net returns. Soybean acreage then declines somewhat
before stabilizing in the second half of the projection period
as yield gains are sufficient to meet growing domestic demand.
Also, higher prices and net returns for competing crops, particularly
corn, keep soybeans from gaining much acreage.
Domestic corn use is strong in the initial years and continues
growing throughout the period. Global economic recovery underlies
longrun growth in U.S. corn exports.
- Feed and residual use of corn is initially unchanged with fewer
cattle on feed and lower pork production offsetting increases
in poultry output. Feed use then rises through the remainder of
the projections as meat production increases.
- Significant growth is expected for ethanol use over the next
several years as many States ban methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE)
as a fuel oxygenate.
- Gains in most other food and industrial components are projected
to be smaller than in the past decade. Additionally, near-term
gains in the use of corn for high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) and
glucose and dextrose are small due to dietary concerns. Projected
gains for these uses, later in the baseline, largely reflect population
growth.
- U.S. corn exports rise faster than global trade, with the United
States increasing its market share. China's corn exports drop
as its livestock sector expands. Additionally, corn exports from
Eastern European countries will increasingly remain in Europe
following the expansion of the EU in 2004. Also, the reduction
and elimination of the high-tariff rate for over-quota corn imports,
by Mexico from the United States under NAFTA, shifts some U.S.
exports to corn from sorghum. Corn exports from Argentina will
continue to grow, increasing that country's global market share.
Demand in the U.S. wheat sector grows slowly, with steady domestic
food-use gains, relatively large feed use, and moderate long-term
increases in exports.
- Domestic wheat demand is relatively mature. After declining
from 2000 to 2004, food use of wheat resumes very slow growth
in the projections, reflecting consumer adjustments to diets that
include fewer carbohydrates. Additionally, new technologies can
significantly extend the shelf life of bread and reduce spoilage,
lowering flour needs required to meet consumer demand. Income
support, provided by marketing loan benefits when prices are low,
keeps land in wheat, resulting in large supplies relative to domestic
food use and exports. Consequently, feed use of wheat rebounds
from low levels in 2002/03 to relatively high levels through most
of the projections, with annual wheat feeding largely reflecting
prices of wheat relative to corn.
- U.S. wheat exports initially decline from 2003/04 to 900 million
bushels in 2004/05 through 2006/07 as wheat production in the
EU rebounds from drought-reduced levels in 2003, while production
levels in Russia and Ukraine recover from a large winter kill.
As income and population in developing countries grow over the
remainder of the baseline, global wheat trade and U.S. exports
increase as well. Competition from the EU, Canada, Argentina,
Australia, and exporters from the Black Sea region continues through
the projections, holding the U.S. market share relatively low
at about 23 percent.
Domestic use of soybeans continues to rise, but exports
decline due to increased competition.
- Growth in domestic soybean crush is largely driven by increasing
demand for domestic soybean meal, mostly because of rising feed
demand for expanding pork and poultry production.
- U.S. soybean exports rebound in 2004/05 from a decline in 2003/04
caused by reduced 2003 production. U.S. exports then gradually
decline through the rest of the projections, largely due to strong
competition from Brazil. Consequently, the U.S. market share of
global soybean trade declines in the baseline.
- U.S. exports of soybean meal and soybean oil also face competition
from South American producers, resulting in moderate growth but
declining U.S. trade shares in those markets.
Domestic mill use of upland cotton continues to fall sharply through
2006/07, with further gradual declines over the remainder of the
projection period. However, upland cotton exports rise to about
13 million bales as cotton is exported for processing in developing
countries with lower labor costs.
- After 2004, import quotas that have protected the U.S. textile
industry will be completely eliminated per the Uruguay Round's
Agreement on Textiles and Clothing. Without the quotas originally
instituted under the Multi-Fiber Arrangement (MFA), apparel imports
rise. This lowers the apparel industry's demand for fabric and
yarn produced in the United States.
- Some increase in U.S. yarn and fabric exports is likely as a
result of tariff reductions in other countries. However, the effects
of these tariff adjustments are not expected to offset the impact
of reduced U.S. apparel production on domestic mill use.
- After increasing somewhat through 2007/08, upland cotton exports
remain relatively stable at about 13 million bales annually for
the rest of the baseline. Foreign competition strengthens and
keeps U.S. cotton exports from expanding further. With world cotton
trade expanding throughout the projections, the U.S. share of
global exports declines but is still about 39 percent in 2013/14.
Steady growth in domestic food use of rice is projected in the
baseline. U.S. rice exports increase in 2004/05 and 2005/06, but
decline moderately for the remainder of the projections.
- The expansion in domestic use of rice reflects a growing share
of the U.S. population of Asian and Latin American descent and
the greater use of rice for processed foods, including pet foods.
- An initial increase in U.S. rice exports in 2004/05 and 2005/06
is due to increasing production and total supplies more than offsetting
rising domestic use, and a declining price difference between
U.S and foreign rice. Continued expansion in domestic use of rice
pushes U.S. prices higher relative to Asian competitors' prices
later in the projection period, resulting in a small downward
trend in U.S. rice exports after 2005/06.
U.S. stocks-to-use ratios for corn, wheat, and soybeans initially
increase from reduced levels at the end of 2002/03 (corn and wheat)
or 2003/04 (soybeans) caused by low yields and reduced production.
Stocks-to-use ratios for corn and soybeans are then relatively flat
throughout the rest of the projections as production gains match
increases in domestic use and exports. The stocks-to-use ratio for
wheat rises through 2007/08, largely reflecting weak exports, but
declines in subsequent years as exports strengthen.
The stocks-to-use ratio for cotton becomes relatively stable at
about 25 percent for most of the baseline projection period. The
rice stocks-to-use ratio initially rises as production rebounds
from the 2003 level, and then remains at 10 to 11 percent as prices
and exports adjust to reflect available supplies and domestic demand.
Projected prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans reflect, in part,
movements in stocks-to-use ratios.
- Price declines in the near term reflect the rebound in production
from the reduced levels of the 2002 crops of corn and wheat and
the 2003 soybean crop.
- Prices for corn and soybeans rise for several years with only
moderate changes for the remainder of the baseline as growth in
demand is largely matched by gains in production. Wheat prices
decline through 2006/07 reflecting weak near-term exports, but
then increase in later years as exports strengthen and push demand
up more than gains in production.
The sugar price support program includes the loan rate program
and marketing allotments. Marketing allotments are functioning each
year in the baseline through fiscal year (FY) 2014.
- The annual marketing allotment is set at a level to keep prices
just above the forfeiture level. Since area planted and harvested
are functions of sugar crop prices relative to alternative crop
uses, there is little incentive to increase sugar acreage. Sugarbeet
planted area varies little over the projection period and averages
about 1.34 million acres a year. Sugarcane harvested area declines
a small amount (about 31,000 acres) from FY 2005 to FY 2014; for
the projection period, it averages about 880,000 acres a year.
Historical growth trends in productivity measures (sugar per acre,
and beet and cane yields) are assumed to hold in the projections
and are responsible for almost all the growth in production of
400,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) during the period FY 2005
to FY 2014.
- Sugar deliveries to producers of sugar-containing products (SCP)
and to nonindustrial endusers are a function of U.S. population
growth. After accounting for SCP trade, the underlying yearly
sugar delivery growth is projected at about 98,000 STRV between
FY 2005 and FY 2014.
- The sugar baseline projects that the raw sugar tariff-rate quota
(TRQ) is established each year at 1,231,497 STRV, the World Trade
Organization (WTO) minimum access level, until FY 2007. After
FY 2007, the raw sugar TRQ is increased to compensate for levels
of domestic production below the Overall Allotment Quantity. The
refined sugar TRQ is established each year at 42,990 STRV. The
yearly raw sugar TRQ shortfall is assumed to equal 50,000 STRV.
- The Mexican consumption tax on soft drinks that use fructose
is assumed to remain in place through the projections period,
thereby limiting sugar available for export to the United States
under the terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
Sugar imports from Mexico reach a high of 224,000 STRV in FY 2005
but fall each year thereafter until they reach zero in FY 2011.
Both flue-cured and burley tobacco production, which together
account for 92 percent of total 2003 U.S. leaf production, are expected
to decline during the baseline period. Both are grown under a quota
program. The marketing quota for both is determined by manufacturers'
purchase intentions, the last 3 years' average exports, and an adjustment
to maintain a specified reserve stock level. Manufacturers' purchase
intentions have declined as cigarette output levels have fallen
and imported tobacco use has risen. Furthermore, exports of both
flue-cured and burley have slipped in the past 5 years as U.S. tobacco
faces strong price competition from foreign producers, particularly
Brazil, which has boosted output substantially in the past decade.
Adjustments for high reserve stocks have further reduced quota levels.
Tobacco price supports rise in the projections, reflecting increasing
production costs. U.S. tobacco prices will continue to edge up as
price supports are raised.
- Declining cigarette consumption and exports, combined with increased
use of imported leaf, reduce the volume of domestic leaf used
by the cigarette manufacturing industry.
- U.S. cigarette consumption is falling 1 to 2 percent per year.
As cigarette smoking in public places becomes more restricted
and both prices and taxes increase, cigarette smokers are reducing
per capita and total consumption, even though about the same proportion
of the population smokes.
- Cigarette exports have declined steadily since their record
high of 244 billion pieces in 1996. Exports during calendar 2003
are expected to be about 120 billion pieces. Cigarette exports
have declined at least 5 percent annually since 2000 but are expected
to level off in the upcoming years.
- Use of imported cigarette leaf reached record high levels in
the last few years. The imported component of U.S.-manufactured
cigarettes exceeded 50 percent in 2002. Manufacturers use less
expensive imported leaf to produce more economical blends and
reduce manufacturing costs. Imported leaf is expected to continue
to displace domestic leaf in U.S. cigarettes.
Exports continue to be crucial to the success of the U.S. horticultural
sector, averaging about 21 percent of production value during the
baseline period. However, the United States remains a net importer
of horticultural products (fruit and nuts, vegetables, and greenhouse
and nursery products).
- Grapes, oranges, apples, fresh and processed potatoes, and processed
tomatoes are among the leading horticultural export commodities.
- Major export markets for U.S. horticultural products include
Canada, Japan, and Southeast Asian nations.
- Imports will continue to play an important role in the domestic
supply of fresh vegetables during the winter months and, increasingly,
during other times of the year.
- Major U.S. horticultural imports include bananas, grapes, frozen
concentrated orange juice, potatoes, and tomatoes from Mexico,
Chile, Canada, and Brazil.
- Canadian potato production and potato processing capacity have
been increasing more than U.S. production levels and processing
capacity. As a result, the United States is a net importer of
potatoes and potato products during some years of the baseline.
Top of page
U.S. Livestock: February 2004 Baseline
Livestock sector projections initially reflect stronger meat animal
prices in 2003, largely due to very tight beef supplies, particularly
of high-quality beef. Total meat production falls in 2004 in the
baseline, assuming normal moisture conditions, largely because of
lower beef production due to already-reduced cattle inventories
and the rebuilding of the cattle herd.
In the longer run, a combination of high cattle prices and rising
hog and broiler prices, gains in production efficiency, and only
moderate increases in feed prices encourage growth in total meat
production. Poultry use becomes a larger proportion of total meat
consumption in the projections. Meat exports benefit from stronger
foreign economic growth.
A Note on Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE)
Over the past few years, bovine spongiform encephalopathy
(BSE) has become a major trade issue. The discovery of BSE
in a single cow in Canada on May 20, 2003, resulted in a ban
on imports of ruminant animals and products from Canada. Under
current guidance provided by international standards set by
the World Organization for Animal Health, a country would
not be considered BSE free until 7 years after the last occurrence
of the disease, a consideration that has been used by some
countries to restrict meat imports.
On August 8, 2003, USDA announced conditions for resuming
imports of certain ruminant-derived products from Canada:
boneless bovine meat from cattle under 30 months of age, boneless
veal from calves 36 weeks of age or younger, and boneless
sheep and goat meat from animals under 12 months of age. Mexico
and a few other countries have established similar guidelines.
Cattle and products from cattle over 30 months of age will
remain burdensome in Canada until these products can move
into international trade. Additionally, a proposal was published
in the Federal Register on November 4, 2003, by the
U.S. Department of Agriculture to amend its BSE regulations
to establish a new category of regions that recognizes countries
or regions presenting a minimal risk of introducing BSE into
the United States via the importation of certain low-risk
live animals and products. The proposed rule would place Canada
on a list of countries considered a minimal risk for BSE,
thus allowing Canada to export certain live animals and products
to the United States.
The baseline projections were completed prior to the diagnosis
of a case of BSE in an adult Holstein cow in Washington State
in December 2003. While this BSE situation is still evolving,
economic impacts would include early-period declines in U.S.
beef exports, resulting in increased supplies of beef available
domestically and, consequently, lower prices for beef and
cattle as larger quantities remain in the U.S. market. Farm
income would also be reduced.
|
Beef production declines in the near term as producers retain cows
and heifers for expansion. Cattle herds are expected to increase
somewhat from cyclical lows near 95 million head in 2004-05. Rising
slaughter weights augment gradual herd expansion over the remainder
of the projections. Pork production grows slowly, as the more coordinated/integrated
industrial structure dampens the U.S. hog cycle. Poultry production
continues to rise, but at a lower rate than during the 1980s and
1990s due to the maturity of the domestic sector and slower export
growth.
The trend toward larger and more commercialized livestock systems
continues throughout the baseline period; efficiency gains allow
production to expand while real prices generally decline.
- Vertical coordination increases in the beef sector as strong
demand for higher quality beef continues, particularly for the
export and hotel and restaurant markets, but increasingly also
at retail.
- The increase in efficiency of the U.S. hog breeding herd over
the last 5 to 10 years reflects a shift to larger, more efficient
operations and the decline in smaller, less efficient operations.
For the baseline, the increase in efficiency slows somewhat since
larger, more efficient operations (those with more than 5,000
head) now account for three-fourths of the U.S. pig crop.
- Production coordination and market integration between the United
States and Canada increase in the hog sector. Feeder pigs produced
in Canada are finished and processed in the United States, where
feed grain prices remain favorable and processing costs are lower.
Large North American retailers and hotels, restaurants, and institutions
source pork cuts where prices are attractive, with demand accommodated
by trade between the countries.
- The poultry sector has benefited from economies of scale associated
with the industry's horizontal and vertical integration. Projected
gains in efficiency over the next decade are smaller than in the
past 25 years.
Hog and broiler prices increase moderately in response to growing
domestic market demand coupled with export gains. Projected price
increases are slower than the general inflation rate. Cattle prices
decline in the projections from record high levels.
U.S. consumers buy more meat but use a smaller proportion of disposable
income for these purchases, continuing a long-term trend. Over the
next 10 years, consumer meat expenditures decline from about 1.8
percent to 1.4 percent of disposable income.
- The trend continues of poultry expenditures rising as a share
of consumer spending on meats.
Total per capita meat consumption (boneless-weight basis) declines
from about 185 pounds in 2003 to near 181 pounds, before rising
back to 185 pounds at the end of the projection period.
- Per capita consumption of relatively lower priced poultry increases
throughout the baseline, allowing poultry to gain a larger share
of total meat consumption and meat expenditures.
- Per capita consumption of beef initially declines, but then
stabilizes later in the projections, while pork consumption varies
between 48 and 50 pounds per person.
U.S. meat exports rise throughout the baseline period, reflecting
improved global economic growth and rising demand for meats. U.S.
imports of beef and cattle from Canada recover from reduced levels
in 2003, which followed the discovery of BSE in Canada. (Baseline
projections were completed prior to the diagnosis of a case of BSE
in an adult Holstein cow in Washington State in December 2003.)
Beef
- The United States, which imports grass-fed beef from Australia
and New Zealand, becomes a net beef exporter in the latter part
of the projections as cattle inventories rise and exports of high-quality
fed beef exceed imports of lower quality processing beef.
- The United States remains the primary source of high-quality
fed beef for export, largely to Pacific Rim nations.
Pork
- Pacific Rim nations and Mexico remain key markets for long-term
growth of U.S. pork exports. Canada continues to be a strong competitor
for pork trade in these markets. Brazil also is a major pork exporter,
competing with the United States, Canada, and the European Union
in international markets.
- While increased efficiency in pork production helps limit production
costs, longer term gains in U.S. pork exports will be determined
by costs of production and environmental regulations relative
to competitors. Such costs tend to be lower in countries with
growing pork industries, such as Brazil and Mexico.
Poultry
- U.S. broiler export growth is expected to slow from the rate
of the 1990s. U.S. producers will face strong competition from
other major broiler exporting countries, particularly Brazil and
Thailand.
- Major U.S. export markets include Asia, Russia, Eastern Europe,
and Mexico. Growth in U.S. poultry exports to Russia is not expected
to return to the pace of the last decade, reflecting higher production
in Russia, greater competition in that market, and current import
quotas which are assumed to continue through early 2006.
While U.S. meat exports grow in importance, the domestic market
remains the dominant source of demand. Meat exports account for
about 11 percent of the total value of domestically produced meat
in 2003, growing to more than 12 percent in the second half of the
projections.
Farm milk prices during the next several years are expected to
recover from recent low levels. Growth in milk production is projected
to slow through 2005/06 because of the recent low prices and the
loss of payments under Milk Income Loss Contracts after the 2004/05
marketing year. Meanwhile, demand for dairy products is expected
to recover from its recent slump.
- Management and productivity gains are expected to boost milk
output. Further development of large, specialized operations in
many regions will be a significant contributor to these gains.
- Milk per cow is projected to continue to grow, while cow numbers
decline. However, the rates of change may well be slower than
in the past as milk per cow is less easily boosted by simply increasing
the amount of concentrate feeds fed. Also, increasing specialization
of dairy farms over time (and the associated specialized nature
of dairy capital and other inputs) probably has made exit from
milk production more sluggish than in past decades.
- Domestic dairy use grows slowly throughout the baseline period,
slightly faster than the growth in population. Cheese and butter
demand will benefit from greater consumption of prepared foods
and increased away-from-home eating. Per capita consumption of
fluid milk, however, is projected to shrink slowly.
- Following the near-term price adjustments, real farm milk prices
are projected to decline slowly in the long run.
Top of page
U.S. Agricultural Sector Measures: February 2004 Baseline
Longrun developments for the U.S. farm sector reflect strengthening
domestic and international economic growth, which support gains
in consumption, trade, and prices. While export competition is projected
to continue, improving world economic growth, particularly in developing
countries, provides a foundation for gains in global trade and U.S.
agricultural exports. Combined with gains in domestic demand, the
results are rising market prices and cash receipts, as well as improvement
in the financial condition of the agricultural sector. Consumer
food prices are projected to continue a long-term trend of rising
more slowly than the general rate of inflation.
Export revenues account for an increasing share of total U.S. farm
cash receipts, rising from 26 percent to 29 percent over the projections
period. With the productivity of U.S. agriculture growing faster
than domestic demand, farmers rely increasingly on export market
growth.
Income projections for the next decade average about $51 billion
per year, compared to $47.6 billion in the 1990s. (Projections were
completed prior to the diagnosis of a case of BSE in an adult Holstein
cow in Washington State in December 2003.)
- Net farm income falls from high 2003 levels through much of
the projections period, reflecting lower government payments and
adjustments in the cattle sector, but then increases toward the
end of the projections to $51.5 billion in 2013. Longer run gains
reflect strengthening domestic demand and exports.
Government payments generally decline through the projections,
largely due to rising market prices for program commodities, which
reduce marketing loan benefits and counter-cyclical payments.
- Direct government payments are projected to fall from over $18
billion in 2003 to about $12 billion in 2011-13. Toward the end
of the projections, direct government payments largely reflect
direct and counter-cyclical payments under the 2002 Farm Act,
payments for the Conservation Reserve Program, and financial assistance
for other conservation programs.
Gross cash income gradually rises through the projections. Cash
receipts for both crops and livestock increase.
- Longer run gains in cash receipts and gross cash income reflect
strengthening domestic demand and exports, which help to improve
financial conditions in the sector.
- The agriculture sector relies on the market for most of its
income. The share of income provided by government payments declines
through the projections. Government payments, which represented
about 10 percent of gross cash income in 2000, account for 4 to
5 percent at the end of the projections.
Production expenses increase modestly from 2004 to 2013, at slightly
less than the general inflation rate. These expenses are divided
into three categories in the chart: farm-origin (seed, feed, and
feeder livestock), manufactured (fuel, fertilizer, pesticides, and
electricity), and other (labor, interest, and other expenses).
- The largest percentage increase is for the other expenses category,
reflecting increases in labor expenses and interest costs. Labor
expenses rise as sector output increases and wage rates rise.
Projected increases in interest costs reflect higher interest
rates, as well as higher debt facilitated by rising gross cash
income.
- Manufactured input expenses increase through the projections
as oil prices rise and crop production expands.
- Cash operating margins tighten somewhat, with cash expenses
increasing from 75 percent of gross cash income in 2004 to about
78.5 percent at the end of the projections.
Strengthening cash receipts and gross cash income through the projections
support gains in farmland values. Increasing demand for land use
from nonagricultural sources, such as housing and recreation, also
affects farmland values.
- There is considerable variation in the growth of farmland prices
across the country. This reflects a variety of factors, including
differences in land quality and location, demand for urban and
recreational development, credit conditions, nonfarm investment
opportunities, government farm policies, and production risks
and weather uncertainties unique to each region's agriculture.
- As the general economy continues to expand, demand for land
for nonagricultural uses contributes to rising farmland values.
Continuation of favorable inflation and interest rates will facilitate
the conversion of farmland to nonfarm uses.
- Benefiting most from the general economic expansion will be
farmland in the path of urban development. Farmland in areas with
recreational amenities also will increase in value as second-home
market demand remains strong.
Increasing gross cash income and moderate interest rates assist
in asset accumulation and debt management.
- Farm debt moves up less rapidly than asset values in the projections,
rising an average of about 1.6 percent a year compared with an
increase of 2.4 percent annually for assets.
Increasing gross cash income and rising farm equity lead to improved
financial conditions in the agricultural sector.
- Debt-to-asset ratios decline slowly through the projections
to under 14 percent by 2013, compared with over 20 percent in
the mid-1980s.
Retail food prices continue a long-term trend of increasing less
than the general inflation rate.
- Among foods purchased for consumption at home, projected price
increases are generally strongest for more highly processed foods
such as cereals and bakery products and fats and oils. For these
foods, prices are related more to processing and marketing costs
than to farm-level prices and, therefore, rise at a rate near
the general inflation rate.
Expenditures for meals prepared away from home account for a growing
share of food spending, reaching about 48 percent of total food
expenditures by 2013.
- Increases in away-from-home food spending, which contains a
large service component, are held down by competition in the fast-food
and food-service industries.
U.S. agricultural export value is projected to grow an average
of 2.6 percent annually from $56 billion in fiscal year 2003 to
$72 billion in 2013. High-value product (HVP) exports continue to
grow, accounting for almost two-thirds of total U.S. exports.
- Strengthening world economic growth, particularly in developing
countries, provides a foundation for gains in trade and U.S. agricultural
exports. However, competition in global markets remains strong.
- Much of the growth in HVP exports is for horticultural products
and animal products. (The baseline projections were completed
prior to the diagnosis of a case of BSE in an adult Holstein cow
in Washington State in December 2003.)
- Growth in the value of bulk commodity exports (grains, oilseeds,
cotton, and tobacco) reflects expected price increases and gains
in volume.
- U.S. agricultural imports rise by about the same amount as exports,
reaching $61 billion in 2013. The agricultural trade surplus is
relatively stable at $10 to $12 billion.
Top of page
Global Agricultural Trade: February 2004 Baseline
With strengthening world economic growth, global agricultural trade
is projected to rise throughout the baseline. Agricultural trade will
remain very competitive, reflecting expanding production in a number
of foreign countries.
The economies of developing countries provide a foundation for
gains in demand for agricultural products and increases in trade.
Broad-based economic growth and increasing urbanization lead to
diet diversification in most developing regions, generating increased
demand for livestock products and feeds, as well as for fruits,
vegetables, and processed products. Developing-country import demand
is further reinforced by population growth rates that remain nearly
double the growth rates of developed countries.
International trade in animal products, however, remains heavily
dependent on demand from developed countries and from market access
achieved under existing global trade agreements. Strong policy support
for domestically produced meat is expected to motivate growth in
feed grain trade, especially to those regions where limited land
availability or agroclimatic conditions preclude expanding domestic
crop production, such as North Africa, the Middle East, and East
and Southeast Asia.
Strong agricultural trade competition is expected in international
commodity markets, not only from traditional exporters such as Argentina,
Australia, and Canada, but also from countries that are in the process
of investing in previously underdeveloped resources including Brazil,
Hungary, Romania, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.
Baseline trade projections to 2013/14 are founded on long-term
assumptions concerning trends in foreign area, yields, and use and
on the assumption that all countries fully comply with all existing
bilateral and multilateral agreements affecting agriculture and
agricultural trade.
The baseline does not incorporate any effects of agreements not
formally ratified by November 2003. However, the baseline does incorporate
the effects of trade agreements and domestic policy reforms already
in place in November 2003. For example, the expansion of the European
Union (EU) from 15 to 25 countries in 2004 and scheduled reforms
of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) affect the baseline
projections for many commodities.
Domestic agricultural and trade policies in individual foreign
countries are assumed to continue to evolve along their current
path, based on the consensus judgment of USDA's regional and commodity
analysts. In particular, economic and trade reform underway in many
developing countries is assumed to continue. Similarly, the development
and use of agricultural technology and changes in consumer preferences
are assumed to continue evolving based on past performance and analysts'
judgment regarding future developments.
Effects of Enlargement of the European Union
On May 1, 2004, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary,
Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia will
become members of the European Union, increasing membership
from 15 to 25 countries. The most important agricultural countries
of the new entrants are Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic,
which account for nearly 80 percent of the population and
85 percent of grain production of the acceding countries.
The acceding countries have already adopted EU policies and
are largely integrated with the EU economically, although
a few prices for important agricultural commodities are sufficiently
different to cause additional production and trade effects
once accession is complete. The commodity likely to be affected
the most is beef, where cattle prices are significantly lower
in Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. The EU-15 will
likely see significant imports of (of both beef and live cattle)
as a result of increased cattle production in each of those
three acceding countries. The other commodity most likely
to be affected is barley, where the EU intervention price
is significantly higher than prices in the three countries.
An increase in barley prices in acceding countries, in combination
with the abolition of EU intervention for rye under CAP reform,
will likely result in more barley production throughout the
EU and significantly higher stocks and exports. Increasing
yields in combination with larger area will both contribute
to production increases.
Production and trade effects are uncertain for other principal
commodities (such as corn, wheat, pork, and poultry), since
prices, quality, and marketing and production capacity for
those commodities vary from the EU and among the three countries.
Cheap land and labor relative to EU-15 countries should increase
net profitability overall. Pork production is likely to increase
because of cheap labor and higher prices in Poland and Hungary.
Higher corn prices in Hungary should boost production and
exports to other EU countries. On the other hand, wheat production
is likely to decline in Poland and Hungary because of lower
EU intervention prices, leading to imports from the EU-15.
Polish poultry imports from other EU members are likely to
increase because of lower EU prices. Adoption of EU regulations
will eliminate Poland's imports of U.S. poultry because of
EU sanitary regulations.
Although EU enlargement is assumed in the baseline, the
trade projections show EU-15 and selected Central and Eastern
Europe (CEE) country results, rather than an aggregate for
the EU-25, since historical data (with intra-trade within
the EU-25 netted out) were not available.
Selected statistics comparing
the EU-15 and acceding countries* |
|
|
Year
|
EU-15
|
Acceding
countries
|
|
Population (million) |
1998
|
377
|
74
|
Agriculture's share of employment (percent) |
1999
|
4.7
|
13.7
|
Arable land (million hectares) |
1998
|
75
|
31
|
Grain production (million metric tons) |
2000
|
206
|
46
|
Grain yield (metric tons/hectare) |
2000
|
5.7
|
2.8
|
|
*Malta and Cyprus not included. |
|
EU CAP Reform, 2003
The EU-15 legislated a reform of its Common Agricultural
Policy in the summer of 2003 that will affect crops, livestock,
dairy, and the CAP budget beginning in 2005. This reform will
also apply to the incoming 10 new member states which will
join the EU on May 1, 2004.
The main feature of the CAP Reform of 2003 is the decoupling
of direct payments from production decisions. The EU previously
provided compensatory payments to make up for significant
cuts in price support for grain, oilseeds, and beef and veal.
However, to receive the payments, farmers had to produce,
so the payments were coupled to production. The direct payments
in the new CAP reform do not require a farmer to produce.
If a farmer decides to simply collect the farm's historical
payment and not produce, the land must still be kept in "good
agricultural condition." Acceptance of the new single farm
payments (SFP) also means that a farm must be in compliance
with environmental, food quality, food safety, and animal
welfare standards set by the EU. The new payments are the
historical average of payments made to the farmer in the 2000-02
period. However, EU member states have been given the option
of coupling up to 25 percent of the payment for arable crops,
40 percent of the sheep payment, and from 40 to 100 percent
of beef and veal payments. In addition, member states can
choose from 2005 to 2007 to implement the new direct payments.
Intervention prices were lowered for three commodities,
rice (50 percent), butter (25 percent), and skim milk powder
(SMP) (15 percent), but direct payments to compensate for
lower prices will be incorporated into the SFP. A cap on rice
intervention was set at 75,000 tons. A declining cap on butter
was set at 70,000 tons in 2004 with scheduled reductions to
30,000 in 2008. The milk quota was increased by 1.2 percent.
Intervention for rye was abolished. Financial discipline was
installed by allowing the CAP budget to increase by 1 percent
per year until 2008 and, if violated, the SFP would be reduced
by the same proportion. The CAP reform of 2003 also included
a "carbon credit" of 45 euros per hectare for the production
of biofuels, which will result in more rapeseed production.
Likely Effects of CAP Reform
Cereals and oilseeds
One of the most likely influences on cereal production will
result from the abolition of rye from intervention. Most of
feed rye area will go into barley production with some rapeseed
in rotation where agroclimatically possible. Some marginal
land will go out of cereal production, particularly wheat,
because wheat is frequently the default crop in marginal southern
and northern areas of Europe. A reduction in EU storage payments
of 50 percent will also encourage marginal cereal land to
go out of production. Some durum wheat will also go out of
production because of CAP reform. Overall, somewhat less than
2 percent of cereal area will move to fallow and pasture,
where extensification of beef production will be enhanced.
The decoupling of direct payments will not cause oilseed area
to change much because oilseeds are not grown in marginal
areas, with the exception of sunflowers. However, more oilseeds
will be grown in the form of rapeseed because of the carbon
credit offered for biofuel production, with as much as 500,000
hectares added to oilseed area.
The 50 percent cut in the rice intervention price will reduce
rice production, with yields down significantly and area falling
slightly. EU rice imports are expected to increase somewhat
to make up for the decline in production.
Beef and veal
Beef and veal production will likely decline marginally
over the next 10 years as decoupled payments will allow some
farmers to forgo production. Pasture land is not allowed to
go into crop production, so with lower cattle numbers, farmers
will graze fewer animals on the same area, which is part of
the EU's environmental program. While the milk quota is increasing
marginally, it is not likely to result in more beef production
as more productive dairy animals will be introduced into the
herd, replacing dual-purpose breeds. Pork and poultry production
will rise marginally in response to the reduced production
of beef. Protein feed should increase slightly to account
for the presence of more pure dairy cows and more poultry
feeding.
Dairy products
The intervention price for butter is to decline by 25 percent
between 2004 and 2006 and the SMP intervention price is set
to decline by 15 percent over the same time period. The decrease
in production resulting from the price decline will be reflected
in lower exports and less storage of both butter and SMP.
First indications of response to CAP Reform
EU farmers are generally in favor of 100-percent decoupling.
A survey released by the EU Commission in the fall of 2003
indicated that the difficulty in maintaining two administrative
programs to keep track of coupled and decoupled payments will
discourage most EU members from opting for coupled programs.
The survey showed that most EU members will opt for 100-percent
decoupling for arable crops. Additionally, Ireland and England
will both opt for 100-percent decoupling for beef and veal
payments.
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Rising unabated since the early 1990s, global trade in soybeans
and soybean products has surpassed wheatthe traditional leader
in agricultural commodity tradeand total coarse grains. Continued
strong growth in global demand for vegetable oil and protein meal
is expected to maintain soybean and soybean product trade well above
wheat and coarse grains trade throughout the next decade.
- These three major commodity groupingswheat, coarse grains,
and oilseeds (including soybeans)compete with each other
and with other crops for increasingly limited temperate cropland.
Additionally, of the major crops, soybeans in central Brazil and
palm in Indonesia's Kalimantan province are successfully tapping
into reserves of virgin tropical soils.
- Virtually no growth in overall global wheat and coarse grain
trade occurred in the 1990s, largely reflecting reductions in
imports by the transition economies of the former Soviet Union
(FSU) and CEE. With those demand adjustments largely complete,
the continuing growth in import demand from other countries leads
to overall gains in global grain trade.
- In the projections, total area planted to all crops changes
little in most countries. Growth in production is derived mostly
from rising yields. The growth rate in crop yields has slowed
somewhat during the last several decades and is projected to continue
to do so.
- Slower growth in aggregate crop production is offset by slower
growth in world population. Nonetheless, population is a significant
factor driving overall growth in demand for agricultural products.
Additionally, rising per capita income in many countries generates
growth in demand for livestock and horticultural products.
Definition of country groups
Growth in wheat imports is concentrated in developing countries,
primarily Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, where robust growth
in income and population underpins increases in demand. Important
growth markets include China, Brazil, Indonesia, Egypt, Mexico,
Pakistan, and Sub-Saharan Africa. World wheat trade (including flour)
expands by 25 million tons (25 percent) between 2004 and 2013 to
nearly 128 million tons.
- Brazil is projected to remain the world's largest importer.
The climate in Brazil does not favor wheat, and in some key wheat-producing
states, winter corn is expected to have better returns than wheat.
- China is expected to gradually increase wheat imports to over
5 million tons as higher returns for other crops and increasingly
expensive irrigation in the North China Plain limit wheat production.
As a result, China turns to the international market to supplement
internal supplies.
- Changing consumption patterns affect the projections for some
major importing countries. In Indonesia, diversification of diets
and strong economic growth are projected to increase per capita
wheat consumption. Mexican consumers are projected to continue
substituting some wheat for corn in their diets.
- Population growth boosts imports by some other countries. Egypt
remains one of the world's largest wheat importers with growth
driven by increases in population. Even though Pakistan's per
capita consumption is projected to decline somewhat, wheat imports
rise because of population growth.
- Developing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, and
the Middle East account for over 40 percent of world wheat imports.
In most developing countries, little change in per capita wheat
consumption is expected but imports expand modestly because of
population growth and limited potential to expand production.
Definition of country groups
The top five wheat exporting nations (the United States, the EU,
Canada, Argentina, and Australia) account for about 75 percent of
world trade through 2013. This is down from an average of 80 percent
during 1996-2002. The U.S. market share of global wheat trade holds
steady at about 23 percent under strong competition from the other
traditional wheat exporters and from an emerging set of competitors
including Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Russia, and India.
- Wheat export shares for Australia and Canada remain fairly stable
from 2004 to 2013.
- In Canada, increased demand for barley and oilseeds is expected
to keep wheat area from expanding. Only modest yield improvements
curtail production growth, while expanding domestic demand limits
export growth.
- Exports by the EU and Eastern Europe will be constrained by
several factors. Some marginal EU land will go out of wheat and
rice production as a result of CAP reform. As the EU expands,
more production will likely remain in the EU rather than being
exported outside the EU-25. In the near term, the set-aside rate
has been lowered from 10 to 5 percent in response to the drought-reduced
2002 crop and low stock levels. These projections assume that
the set-aside rate will remain at 5 percent in 2005 before being
raised back to 10 percent.
- The Black Sea is an important outlet for wheat exports from
the FSU and CEE. Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Russia emerge as steady
suppliers of wheat to international markets. Low costs of production
and on-going investment in their agricultural sectors are expected
to support FSU and CEE wheat export market share at about 9 percent
through the period.
- India's exports of low-quality wheat from government-held stocks
are expected to continue at about 2 million tons per year.
Will Water Scarcity Affect China's Agricultural Production and Trade?
Water shortages in important grain-producing regions of
China may affect China's future agricultural production and
trade. Rapidly increasing industrial and domestic water consumption
and expanding irrigation over the last 40 years have drawn
down ground-water tables and disrupted surface-water deliveries.
The problem is most severe in the North China Plain (NCP)
region of north-central China, primarily the provinces of
Hebei, Shandong, and to some extent, Henan. Over 50 percent
of China's wheat and nearly 40 percent of China's cotton has
been produced in these three provinces in recent years, and
both these crops rely on irrigation. Liaoning Province also
suffers from water shortage problems, and many areas suffer
from water quality problems.
Wheat is the most likely crop to experience production declines
due to irrigation water shortages. China is the world's largest
wheat producing country and a decrease in wheat production
could have a significant effect on international markets.
Most of the wheat in the areas affected by irrigation water
shortages is winter wheat that grows in the spring and is
harvested in June. After harvesting wheat, farmers plant a
second crop, usually corn or, increasingly, cotton. Over 70
percent of the annual rainfall on the NCP, however, falls
in the period July-September, so the second crop does not
rely on supplemental irrigation as much as winter wheat. Indeed,
the expansion of irrigated area in this region over the last
40 years has allowed farmers to double-crop with winter wheat.
Wheat is also threatened by reduced water availability for
agriculture because irrigated wheat brings a low return to
water and is less suitable to water-saving irrigation technologies
(such as greenhouses, drip irrigation, or even plastic mulching)
than horticultural crops.
Policies and prices have likely contributed more to recent
reductions in wheat production than have irrigation shortages.
Despite indications that water shortages have not seriously
affected agricultural production thus far, China continues
to draw down water resources and many observers anticipate
the situation worsening unless effective water conservation
policies can be rapidly put into place. China has recently
established a variety of policies to encourage more effective
water conservation in both agricultural and nonagricultural
uses. The success of these policies will depend on several
factors. Policy reforms will depend critically on the enforcement
of withdrawal limits both from surface water systems and from
ground water. Also important is the extent to which policies
and local management practices provide water users and water
managers an incentive to conserve water resources.
Cropping patterns in China will likely change as farmers
address water conservation issues. Effective conservation
policies will induce farmers to use water in ways that are
more in accordance with its economic value in production.
Uses that bring a low return to water, such as wheat irrigation,
will be replaced by uses that bring about higher returns,
such as cotton production with lower irrigation needs. The
introduction of insect resistant cotton varieties containing
bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) in the NCP has made cotton
much more profitable in this area. Because of the profitability
of Bt cotton and low wheat prices, an increasing number of
farmers are forgoing winter wheat and planting full-season
(spring-sown) cotton instead, which they irrigate one to three
times before the rainy season begins. In addition, cotton
tends to be more salt tolerant than wheat, and much of the
NCP's shallow water table has salinity problems.
Additionally, some irrigated wheat land could move to vegetable
production using modern water-saving irrigation practices.
A shift to vegetables would also be in accordance with China's
underlying resource endowment, which is labor abundant and
land scarce. If China further opens its agricultural markets,
this too will hasten the shift into more labor-intensive crops
that could bring higher returns to China's limited water resources.
For more information on this topic, see China's
Agricultural Water Policy Reforms: Increasing Investment,
Resolving Conflicts and Revising Incentives, by Bryan
Lohmar, Jinxia Wang, Scott Rozelle, Jikun Huang, and David
Dawe, USDA, ERS, AIB No. 782, March 2003.
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Growth in trade of coarse grains is strongly linked to expansion
of livestock activities in regions unable to meet their own forage
and feed needs, particularly North Africa, the Middle East, and
East and South East Asia.
- Corn is the dominant feed grain traded in international markets.
Corn accounts for an average of 77 percent of all coarse grain
trade through the projection period, followed by barley (15 percent),
and sorghum (5 percent).
- Hogs and ruminants, such as cattle and sheep, are capable of
digesting a broad range of feedstuffs, making demand relatively
price sensitive across alternate feed sources. However, as pork
and poultry production become increasingly commercialized, they
also demand a higher minimum quality of feedstuffs, particularly
related to energy and protein content. This commercialization
of livestock activities has been a driving force behind the gains
in global protein meal markets and the growing dominance of corn
in international feed grain markets.
- Trade in barley and oats is becoming increasingly specialized
and driven by specific end-use demands. Trade in sorghum and rye
will be affected by changing government policies in Mexico and
the EU-25.
Definition of country groups
Rising incomes and associated gains in per capita meat consumption,
particularly in developing countries, are important drivers of projected
gains in coarse grain use and trade. Key growth markets include
China, North Africa, the Middle East, and Mexico.
- World coarse grain trade expands about 27 million tons (26 percent)
from 2004 to 2013. About two-thirds of global coarse grain supplies
are used as animal feed. Industrial uses, such as starch production,
ethanol, and malting, are relatively small but growing. Food use
of coarse grains, concentrated in parts of Latin America, Africa,
and Asia, has generally declined over time as consumers tend to
shift consumption toward wheat, rice, and other foods, as their
incomes rise.
- A key factor that weakened global coarse grain demand during
the 1990s was the drop in livestock numbers and feeding that occurred
in the FSU and CEE as these economies underwent structural reform.
These adjustments are largely completed. In the projections, steady
longrun growth in the livestock sectors of developing countries
in Asia, Latin America, North Africa, and the Middle East is expected
to more than make up for the lost feed demand of the FSU and CEE.
- North Africa and the Middle East experience continued growth
in import demand for grain and protein meals through 2013 as rising
populations and increasing incomes sustain strong demand growth
for domestically produced animal products. Feed requirements have
grown in step with livestock and poultry sectors in North African
and Middle Eastern countries.
- Mexico's imports of corn are projected to jump nearly 7 million
tons between 2004 and 2013. Under the North America Free Trade
Agreement (NAFTA), Mexico's over-quota tariff on corn imports
from the United States is gradually reduced to zero by January
1, 2008. Before then, the tariff will reach levels that are low
enough to facilitate over-quota corn imports. As a result, Mexico's
corn imports are projected to rise sharply. The increase in corn
imports will substitute for imports of sorghum, which already
has tariff-free status.
Definition of country groups
The United States dominates world trade in coarse grains, particularly
corn. The U.S. share of world corn trade is expected to grow from
about 60 percent in recent years to over 70 percent by 2013 as few
countries have similar capabilities to respond to rising international
demand for corn. China's trade share drops, but the U.S. corn sector
faces increased competition from Argentina and Eastern Europe, which
also increase their shares of the global corn market.
- Argentina, with a small domestic market, remains the world's
second largest corn exporter. As Argentina's economy continues
to recover, investments and planted area gradually return to corn
production over the baseline, with exports projected to rise from
10 to nearly 14 million tons.
- China's corn exports decline in the baseline reflecting strengthening
domestic demand driven by rapidly expanding livestock sectors.
- The Republic of South Africa continues exporting some corn to
neighboring countries in southern Africa, but amounts remain small
(about 1 million tons).
- Corn exports from Eastern Europe double to about 6 million tons
by 2013. Favorable resource endowments, increasing economic openness,
and greater investment in their agricultural sectors are behind
projected gains in production and trade.
- Brazil continues to export about 5 million tons of corn in response
to niche market demand for non-genetically modified grain, but
strong growth in domestic demand prevents corn exports from increasing.
China remains a net corn exporter through 2008/09, reflecting abundant
domestic supplies and strong producer preferences for growing corn.
Later in the period, domestic livestock production increases in
response to income growth and rising meat demand. The resulting
increase in demand for feed overtakes China's internal supplies,
with total corn imports exceeding exports. However, China continues
to export corn throughout the projection period, although in declining
amounts, due to regional supply and demand differences. Northern
China runs a corn surplus, while Southern China is corn deficit.
- Corn is the favored crop in Northeast China. The proximity to
South Korea and other Asian markets provides a nearby source of
demand, while various government measuresincluding subsidies
for corn sales from state grain reserves, waiver of certain transportation
construction taxes, and a rebate of the value-added tax on exported
cornkeep corn exports competitively priced in international
markets.
- China experienced a large buildup of corn stocks in the mid-
to late-1990s due to a combination of favorable weather and local
self-sufficiency policies that boosted grain production to record
levels. In the last half decade, China's consumption exceeded
production, and stocks have declined sharply. Because a continued
drop in stocks is unsustainable, China is projected to increase
imports and reduce exports, and to become a net corn importer
by the middle of the baseline period.
Definition of country groups
Global barley trade expands throughout the baseline, driven by
rising demand for both malting and feed barley.
- Feed barley imports by North African and Middle Eastern countrieswhere
barley is preferred as a feed for large populations of camels,
goats, and sheepgrow steadily through the period. In the
mid-1990s, corn overtook barley as the principal coarse grain
imported by these countries, due mainly to rising poultry production.
This pattern is expected to continue through the projection period.
However, the North African and Middle East region is expected
to remain the world's largest barley importing block.
- Saudi Arabiathe world's foremost barley importeraccounts
for over 30 percent of world barley trade through the baseline.
Saudi Arabia's barley imports are used primarily as a ruminant
feed.
- International demand for malting barley is boosted by strong
growth in beer demand in many developing countries, notably Chinathe
world's largest malting barley importer since the mid-1990s. Malting
barley is the leading ingredient used by brewers to produce beer,
and China's beer demand is rising steadily due to growth in incomes
and population.
Definition of country groups
Historically, global barley exports have originated primarily from
the EU, Australia, and Canada. However, Ukraine and, to a lesser
extent, Russia have emerged as important competitors in international
feed barley markets and remain so throughout the baseline period.
- The EU, with abundant barley supplies, increases its barley
exports over the projection period to 5.8 million tons and its
share of world trade rises to nearly 30 percent. Barley production
is expected to increase throughout the EU as a result of CAP reform
and EU enlargement. The abolition of EU intervention for rye,
combined with higher barley prices in the acceding countries,
will stimulate more area allocated to barley production.
- The FSU remains a major barley exporter throughout the baseline
as exports exceed 5 million tons. Together, the FSU and EU account
for 50 to 55 percent of world barley trade throughout the baseline.
- Malting barley is a different variety and quality than feed
barley and commands a substantial price premium over feed barley.
In the long run, malting barley's price premium is expected to
strongly influence planting decisions in Canada and Australia,
and malting barley's share of total barley area rises in the latter
half of the projections period.
World sorghum trade, which has averaged nearly 7 millions tons
during the last decade, declines to about 6 million tons by the
middle of the projection period. The decline is driven almost entirely
by Mexico.
- Mexico is the world's leading sorghum importer although its
sorghum imports were reduced in 2002 and 2003 due to reduced U.S.
production. During this two-year period of reduced U.S. exportable
supplies of sorghum, U.S. exports to Mexico of kibbled corn (processed
corn that also has tariff-free status) rose sharply, reaching
a record 2.5 million tons (whole corn equivalent) in 2002/03.
Under NAFTA, Mexico's over-quota tariff on corn imports from the
United States is gradually reduced to zero by 2008. The projections
assume that the tariff will be low enough before 2008 to facilitate
over-quota corn imports. As a result, Mexico's corn imports are
projected to increase sharply. As corn substitutes for sorghum
in the import mix, Mexico's sorghum imports decline by about 1
million tons to less than 3.5 million tons by 2008/09. Even at
the reduced sorghum import level, Mexico still accounts for almost
60 percent of world import demand for sorghum.
- Japan imports a fairly stable volume of sorghum throughout the
period to maintain diversity and stability in its feed grain supplies.
- The United States is the largest exporter of sorghum, accounting
for more than 80 percent of world trade. During the projection
period, the U.S. share declines to 76 percent by 2013, as Argentina,
the world's second largest exporter, raises its share of world
exports to 16 percent as U.S. sorghum exports to Mexico decline.
Strong income and population growth in developing countries generates
increasing demand for vegetable oils for food consumption and for
protein meals used in livestock production. World soybean trade
grows at an average annual rate of 3.6 percent through the projection
period compared with rates of 3.3 and 2.4 percent for soybean oil
and soybean meal.
- Many countries with limited opportunity to expand oilseed production
continue investment in oilseed crushing capacity, such as China
and some countries in North Africa, the Middle East, and South
Asia. As a result, oilseed import demand is maintained above protein
meal import demand throughout the baseline. However, strong competition
in international protein meal markets is expected to pressure
crushing margins and shift some of the import demand for oilseeds
to cheaper meals. The steady competitive pressure of new oilseed
crushing capacity forces many inefficient crushers out of business.
- Growth in import demand for total vegetable oils exceeds growth
in import demand for either oilseeds or protein meals. Consequently,
economic incentives to produce high-oil content oilseeds, such
as rapeseed and sunflower seed, and palm oil strengthen through
the baseline period.
- Because of its effect on world commodity markets, China's policy
of expanding domestic crushing capacity instead of importing protein
meal and vegetable oil significantly influences the composition
of world trade, causing international import demand for soybeans
and other oilseeds to be greater than would otherwise be the case.
Definition of country groups
- The EU has been the world's leading importer of soybeans and
soybean meal. Despite an increase in the dairy quota that would
increase the feeding of soymeal, the net growth of soymeal feeding
will decline. Abundant EU grain stocks, lower internal EU grain
prices due to Agenda 2000 price cuts, increased barley production
due to CAP 2003 reforms, more imports of coarse grains from acceding
countries, and more rapemeal available as a result of the biofuels
initiative, combine to slow the growth of soymeal consumption.
As a result, increases in grain and rapemeal feeding are expected
to continue to slow the growth in EU soybean meal and soybean
imports.
- China accounts for over 70 percent of the world's growth in
soybean imports over the next 10 years. Significant investment
in oilseed crushing infrastructure by China, seeking to capture
the value added from processing oilseeds into protein meal and
vegetable oil, drive strong gains in soybean imports.
- East Asia's trade outlook is dominated by a continuing shift
from importing feedstuffs to importing meat and other livestock
products. As a result, this region's import demand for protein
meal and oilseeds slows over the baseline. This process occurs
most noticeably in Japan.
- The three leading soybean exportersthe United States,
Brazil, and Argentinaaccount for more than 90 percent of
world trade throughout the baseline.
- Driven by continuous area gains, Brazil extends its lead over
the United States as the world's leading exporter of soybeans.
- Limited expansion of acreage and increasing domestic use eventually
constrict exportable U.S. supplies.
- Argentina's soybean exports hold steady at 8 million tons, reflecting
the country's substantial crush capacity and an export tax structure
that favors domestic crushing of whole seeds and exporting of
the products.
Definition of country groups
- Despite increased domestic grain feeding, the EU remains the
world's principal destination for soybean meal through the projection
period, as favorable import prices for meal relative to soybeans
pressure crush margins and curtail soybean imports in favor of
soybean products.
- Latin America, North Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia,
the FSU, and CEE remain important growth markets for soybean meal.
- Significant expansion in domestic crushing in China and large
imports of oilseeds in the baseline replace the temporary period
of soybean meal imports seen in the late-1990s. By the end of
the projection period, China becomes a net exporter of 1 million
tons of soybean meal.
Definition of country groups
- Argentina, Brazil, and the United States are the three major
exporters in international protein meal markets. These countries
increase their share of global soybean meal trade from about 85
percent in recent years to more than 88 percent at the end of
the projection period.
- Small but steady soybean meal exports from the EU are joined
by increasing exports from other South American countries (mostly
Paraguay) and China to keep international protein meal markets
very competitive. India remains an exporter, although export volume
declines.
- Argentina and Brazil, the world's two largest exporters, increase
their share of soybean meal exports slightly, while the export
shares of the United States and other exporters fall slightly.
- Strong growth in domestic meal consumption due to rapid expansion
of the poultry and pork sectors constrains growth in Brazil's
soybean meal exports.
Definition of country groups
- Import demand for soybean oil rises in nearly all countries
and regions except for the FSU, CEE, and the EU. The largest gains
are projected for India, North Africa, the Middle East, and Latin
America (particularly Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America),
where income and population growth drive strong gains in soybean
oil imports. Slower growth is projected for the mature markets
of Europe and Japan.
- In India, relatively lower tariffs on soybean oil (held in check
by World Trade Organization tariff-binding commitments) than on
other vegetable oils favor continued strong imports of soybean
oil. India accounts for an increasing share of world soybean oil
imports, due to burgeoning domestic demand for vegetable oils
and limitations on domestic production of oilseeds. Land-use competition
also limits oilseed area in India.
- In China, growing demand for high-quality vegetable oils outpaces
domestic oil production and fuels expanding soybean oil imports.
Land-use competition from other crops constrains area planted
to vegetable oil crops in China.
Definition of country groups
A strong emphasis on exporting soybean products pushes Argentina's
and Brazil's combined share of world soybean oil exports from 75
to 82 percent by the end of the baseline.
- Argentina has a small domestic demand for soybean oil. Argentine
soybean production is projected to rise due to extensive double-cropping,
further adjustments to crop-pasture rotations, and the addition
of marginal lands in the Salta-Tucuman region in the northwest
part of the country. Nearly all additional soybean oil production
will be exported.
- Argentina exports more soybean oil than Brazil, reflecting the
country's large crush capacity and its small domestic market.
South America's Increasing Presence in the Global Soybean Market
The global soybean sector has been undergoing a period of
tremendous structural change, which is projected to continue
in the baseline. The United States has traditionally been
the world's dominant soybean producer, but South America emerged
as a major competitor in the 1990s. This change took place
very quickly. Soybean production in Brazil and Argentina increased
sharply between 1990 and 2002. Production has also increased
in the United States but not at nearly the same rate as in
South America. As a result, South America surpassed the United
States in soybean production in 2002/03.
Significant expansion in South American soybean production
is expected to continue in the baseline, particularly in Brazil.
Crop production in Argentina and Brazil has traditionally
been concentrated in the northern third of Argentina and the
bordering southern portion of Brazil (this region also shares
borders with Paraguay and Uruguay). However, production has
expanded significantly in Brazil's "center west" (including
the states of Mato Grosso, Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul, Bahia,
and Maranhao). There remain large tracts of untapped land
resources in Brazil that could easily and inexpensively be
converted for more crop production.
Seasonal cropping patterns in Brazil and Argentina are roughly
6 months different from those in the United States. Consequently
there is a major harvest of soybeans in the global market
every 6 months rather than every 12 months. This production
pattern makes global soybean supplies much steadier throughout
the marketing year and has additional implications for use,
stockholding, and price patterns.
Superior transportation and marketing infrastructure have
long been a major advantage for the U.S. soybean industry,
but South American countries have invested in infrastructure
and are significantly narrowing the gap. Much of the recent
investment has been in Brazil's interior making this region's
production increasingly competitive in the global soybean
market.
The growing presence of South America in the global market
has implications for annual soybean prices. Analysis indicates
that a 1-percent increase in South American soybean production
would decrease the U.S. season-average farm price by about
one-fourth of 1 percent.
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Definition of country groups
Global rice trade is projected to average 2.4-percent annual growth
from 2004 through 2013. By 2013, global rice trade is projected
to reach nearly 33 million tons, about 18 percent above the current
record set in 2002. Despite the growth, rice trade as a share of
total use remains very small relative to other cereals, at only
6 to 7 percent.
- International rice trade consists predominantly of long-grain
varieties, which also account for the bulk of expected trade growth
over the next decade. Long-grain rice is imported by a broad spectrum
of countries in South and Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Sub-Saharan
Africa, and Latin America. Indonesia, Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, the
Philippines, and Saudi Arabia are typically the top long-grain
markets.
- In contrast, medium- and short-grain rice is primarily imported
by the high-income countries of Northeast Asia (Japan, South Korea,
and Taiwan) and by two middle-income countries (Turkey and Jordan).
Expansion in medium-grain rice trade is projected to be much slower
than for long grain, despite the partial opening of domestic markets
to imported rice by Japan and South Korea in 1995 and Taiwan in
2002 as part of World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments.
- Aromatic rice, primarily basmati and jasmine, make up most of
the rest of global rice trade. Aromatics typically sell at a substantial
price premium to long- and medium-grain varieties in global markets.
Aromatics are imported mostly for high-income consumers.
- Rising food demand from Indonesia's burgeoning population is
responsible for escalating rice imports. Already the world's leading
rice importer, Indonesia's share of global rice imports grows
from 12 to 15 percent in the baseline. Land constraints and already
high crop-intensity indexes suggest little opportunity for Indonesia
to significantly expand production.
- Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East are also major destinations
for internationally traded rice. In both regions, strong demand
growth driven by rapidly expanding populations and rising incomes
confronts limited opportunities to expand production, due to agroclimatic
reasons in the Middle East and to political and infrastructure
deficiencies in Sub-Saharan Africa.
- EU rice imports are expected to rise as the 50-percent cut in
the rice intervention price imposed by CAP reform causes yields
and planted area to decline.
Definition of country groups
Asian producing countries dominate rice trade throughout the projection
period.
- Thailand and Vietnam, the world's largest rice-exporting countries,
account for nearly half of all rice exports in the baseline. Both
countries produce and export primarily long-grain rice. Rising
production, mostly due to higher yields, and declining per capita
consumption account for the expansion in exports for both countries.
- The United States is projected to be the third largest rice-exporting
country during most of the baseline. U.S. exports decline slightly
after 2006 as rising domestic demand offsets production growth.
Record yields are responsible for the larger crops.
- India emerged as an important rice exporter in the mid-1990s.
Most of India's rice exports are low-quality, long-grain rice,
often purchased from burdensome government stocks. High internal
price supports in India encourage over-production, stock accumulation,
and a steady supply of exports throughout the period. India also
exports smaller quantities of high-quality basmati rice.
- Rice exports from China, typically the world's fifth-leading
exporter, decline modestly in the baseline as production shifts
to higher quality, but lower yielding varieties in response to
domestic prices and policy signals. China exports mostly high-quality,
short-grain rice to Northeast Asian markets and low-quality, long-grain
rice to Indonesia and other low-income markets in Asia and Sub-Saharan
Africa.
- Pakistan exports both high-quality basmati rice and low-quality
long grain. Although rice is an important foreign exchange earner,
Pakistan has little ability to expand rice area, and production
is confronting a growing water shortage. As a result, its exports
are relatively stable over the baseline and remain well below
the 2.4-million metric ton record of 2000.
Definition of country groups
Completion of the Multi-Fiber Arrangement (MFA) phaseout on December
31, 2004 will eliminate quotas and other trade restrictions that
have governed international trade in textiles and apparel for more
than 30 years. These restrictions are being removed as part of WTO
commitments and are having a major influence on world cotton trade
patterns. For apparel production, labor is the decisive input factor.
As a result, cloth and raw cotton consumption will increase in developing
countries where labor costs are lowest. High-cost labor markets
in Europe and East Asia continue to reduce their cotton imports
through the baseline.
- The textile industries in China and South and Southeast Asia
are the major beneficiaries of MFA phaseout. Much of the increase
in world imports is attributable to China, whose textile industry
begins to import record amounts of cotton in the latter half of
the forecast period.
- India is expected to benefit from the MFA phaseout as well,
but cotton imports are expected to remain below record levels.
India's textile industry use of man-made fiber has been accelerating
in recent years, and cotton use is not expected to grow as rapidly
as in China, despite India's growing textile exports.
- Other countries with low labor costs that are most likely to
gain from MFA phaseout include Bangladesh, Pakistan, Philippines,
Thailand, and Vietnam.
- In contrast, Turkey relinquishes its place as one of the world's
largest cotton importers. In recent years, Turkey's textile industry
has benefited from favorable trade access to the EU, its major
export market for textiles and apparel. However, the end of the
MFA quotas will now give lower cost competitors the same favorable
access to EU markets.
- Similarly, the EU, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea all steadily
reduce their cotton imports as textile trade reforms and/or higher
wages in these countries drive textile production to lower wage
countries.
Definition of country groups
The MFA phaseout is expected to speed the transfer of raw cotton
production to countries where resource endowments and technology
result in the lowest production costs. Land is a key input factor.
Traditional producers with large land bases suitable for cotton
production are expected to benefit from post-MFA phaseout trade
patterns. Such producer/exporter regions include the United States,
Sub-Saharan Africa, the former Soviet Union, Australia, and Brazil.
- The United States remains the world's leading cotton exporter
throughout the baseline period with annual exports (upland and
extra-long staple) of between 12.5 and 13.8 million bales.
- Central Asia, the principle competitor with the United States
on world raw cotton markets for the last decade, has been overtaken
by Sub-Saharan Africa, which is expected to expand its lead. Government
policies in Central Asia promoting investment in textiles have
increasingly resulted in exports of textile products rather than
exports of raw cotton. Central Asia's textile industries continue
to grow faster than cotton production in the region, and exports
decline slowly during much of the forecast period.
- Sub-Saharan Africa's exports have risen in large part due to
economic reforms. A large correction in the foreign exchange value
of the currency (the CFA Franc) of the major cotton exporting
countries of West Africa in 1994 led to nearly a decade of growth
in West Africa's cotton production. As West Africa's production
gains began to lag at the end of the 1990s, several southern African
countries began increasing their cotton production, aided by reforms
such as ending marketing board monopolies. Continued increases
in output are expected as producers take advantage of more export-oriented
government policies.
Increased market access achieved under existing global trade agreements
was behind much of the gains in animal product trade over the past
decade. During the baseline, per capita income growth in a broad
number of importing countries is the driving force behind rising
global meat demand.
- Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Canada has resulted
in restrictions on live cattle imports into the United States
and increased beef exports from Canada to the United States. (The
baseline projections are based on assumptions that were made prior
to the report of a BSE case in the United States.)
- The accession of 10 new countries into the EU results in more
trade between the EU and the acceding countries and less shipments
of meat outside the EU-25.
- Beef exports from Australia and New Zealand, mostly of grass-fed
beef destined for markets in the United States and Asia, increase
slightly through the baseline.
- Argentine exports of fresh/chilled beef and processed products
remain strong due to competitive pricing into Hong Kong and European
markets.
- EU beef exports remain below the annual WTO export-subsidy limit
of 817,000 metric tons as a stronger euro limits their competitiveness
and policy changes lower beef production, reducing the supplies
of beef that need to be removed from the domestic market.
- Pork exports from CEE countries, particularly Hungary and Poland
exports to the EU, rise steadily in the baseline, aided by accession
into the EU.
- Brazil's rapidly expanding pork production is expected to be
very competitive and its pork exports rise strongly. Brazil does
not gain nationwide FMD-free status and focuses its pork exports
on Russia, Argentina, and Asian markets other than Japan and South
Korea.
- The United States encounters increasing competition in international
poultry markets from Brazil, the EU, and several CEE countries.
- A growing share of Brazil's rapidly increasing poultry production
enters international markets at very competitive prices, and Brazil's
poultry exports rise strongly.
Definition of country groups
Most beef trade occurs between developed countries and is closely
linked to market access gains already achieved under prior trade
agreements. However, BSE in Canada forces restrictions on trade
in the beef market.
- Higher income countries of East Asia, such as Japan and South
Korea, increase imports of beef, reflecting domestic cattle sectors
that are constrained by land availability as well as a resumption
of growth in their beef consumption.
- U.S. beef imports, primarily from Australia and New Zealand
for ground beef and other processed products, decline slightly
through the period. This declining trend, combined with robust
growth of U.S. higher quality beef exports to Mexico and East
Asian markets, results in the United States becoming a net exporter
of beef late in the projection period.
- The baseline assumes that the tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for beef
that Russia imposed in 2003 remains in effect until 2006 (the
period established by current Russian legislation). The TRQ slows,
but does not stop, the growth in beef imports, as rising consumer
demand continues to outpace gains in domestic production. Russia
remains a large market for EU subsidized beef exports as well
as Brazilian beef.
Definition of country groups
- Mexican pork imports increase about 200,000 tons over the projection
period, making Mexico one of the fastest growing pork importers.
Increases in income and population are the primary drivers of
Mexico's increasing demand for pork products.
- Higher income countries of East Asiasuch as Japan, Hong
Kong, and South Koreaincrease pork imports as their domestic
hog sectors are constrained by imported feed costs and environmental
issues.
- As with beef, the baseline assumes that the TRQ that Russia
imposed for pork in 2003 remains in effect until 2006. Although
the TRQ initially lowers pork imports, Russia remains a major
destination for competitively priced pork exports from the EU
and Brazil as demand growth continues to exceed Russian meat producers'
ability to respond.
Definition of country groups
- Russia remains the world's foremost poultry importer as rising
consumer demand continues to outpace increases in domestic production.
- The quota on poultry imports that Russia imposed in 2003 is
assumed to exist until 2006. The quota raises domestic prices,
thereby spurring domestic poultry production and feed demand.
As a result, wheat and barley feeding, as well as corn imports,
rise over the period. When the poultry quota is discontinued,
imports begin to rise steadily, driven by growing consumer demand.
- Poultry imports into Saudi Arabia continue to rise through the
baseline. However, consumer preference for freshly killed birds
keeps domestic production strong.
- Poultry consumption growth in China is met largely by expanding
domestic production, but imports are also projected to grow.
- Strong economic growth in Mexico, along with trade liberalization
under NAFTA, will generate increases in poultry imports.
- Thailand's poultry exports are slowly squeezed out of the EU
market as a result of increasing competition from acceding countries,
but exports to other markets such as Japan increase.
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