USDA Rice Baseline, 2005-14
The global rice market is critical to the viability of the U.S. rice industry. Despite steady expansion in domestic rice use, exports continue to account for 45 percent or more of total use of rice each year. Although accounting for less than 2 percent of global rice production, the United States is typically the third or fourth largest rice exporting country. The United States faces stiff competition in the global market for milled rice from lower cost Asian exporters and has lost substantial market share over the past decade, primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. However, rapid expansion in U.S. rough rice exports—mostly to Latin America—has offset much of the decline in milled rice exports.
Each year, USDA updates its 10-year projection of supply and utilization for major field crops grown in the United States and major producing countries and regions, including rice (see Overview of the USDA Baseline Process for more information). The commodity projections are used to forecast farm program costs and to prepare the President's budget. One key use of the projections is as a "baseline" from which to analyze underlying policy changes affecting U.S. agriculture. This discussion summarizes the analysis underlying the rice baseline projections for 2005-14. Details about the baseline projections for the U.S. macroeconomy, other U.S. crops, U.S. livestock,
the U.S. agricultural sector, and global agricultural trade can be found in the Agricultural Baseline briefing room.
The U.S. rice sector in 2004/05 is facing its highest ending stocks since 1986/87, a result of a bumper crop and record supplies more than offsetting a small increase in total use. Despite a 77-percent increase in ending stocks, the U.S. season-average farm price is virtually unchanged from a year earlier, and the 2003/04 season-average price was the highest since 1998/99. U.S. prices in 2004/05 are being supported by much higher global trading prices. In late November 2004, quoted prices for Thailand's 100-percent Grade B milled rice for the export market were up 20 percent from the summer and the highest since spring 1999. Tight global exportable supplies, higher prices this year for Thailand's intervention purchases of rough rice, and a stronger baht are behind higher global rice prices in 2004/05. In the United States, yields have climbed to record levels each year since 2000, a result of continued adoption of new, higher yielding long-grain varieties in the South and generally favorable weather in most rice growing areas.
U.S. rice plantings are projected to drop about 3 percent in 2005—primarily due to this year's huge build-up in stocks and a decline in U.S. rough rice prices during the second-half of the 2004/05 market year. Plantings are projected to remain unchanged through 2007 and then increase 10,000-30,000 acres each year as returns to rice production exceed returns from alternative cropping options. Soybeans are the primary rotation crop and an alternative planting option in the Delta, the largest rice growing region in the United States. By 2014/15, U.S. rice plantings are projected to reach 3.38 million acres, fractionally above 2004 plantings and the highest since 3.53 million acres of rice were planted 1999.
U.S. rice production is expected to increase each year after 2005, primarily due to rising yields. However, yield growth is projected to slow after 2008 as adoption of new, higher yielding varieties nears completion. Imports are projected to expand each year of the baseline, and will account for an increasing share of domestic use. On the use side, total domestic and residual use is projected to climb each year of the baseline, reaching record levels annually after 2007. Stronger domestic use reflects both rising per capita rice consumption—primarily due to an increasing share of the U.S. population with an Asian or Hispanic background—and a growing population. U.S. exports are projected to increase sharply in 2005/06 and then expand at a much slower pace over the remainder of the baseline. However, the export expansion will be quite limited as the growth in the domestic market exceeds production gains. The United States is projected to remain a major exporter of rough rice throughout the baseline, mostly shipping to Latin America. U.S. ending stocks are projected to slowly decline from this year's extremely high level through 2010/11 and then remain at 31-32 million hundredweight (cwt). Rising global trading prices and growing domestic demand push the U.S. season-average farm price higher each year of the baseline. By 2014/15, the season-average price is projected to reach $9.85 per cwt, the highest since 1996/97. The U.S. price difference over global prices is projected to drop in 2005/06, remain unchanged in 2006/07, and then slowly increase over the remainder of the baseline. This widening gap reduces U.S. competitiveness in world markets, limiting the rate of U.S. export expansion.
Supply
Several factors underlie the long-term trends in both plantings and yield growth that will determine the size of the U.S. rice crop during 2005-14.
Even when prices decline, rice typically remains the most profitable planting option for U.S. growers. Despite a sharp decline in U.S. average rice prices from 1997/98 through 2001/02—and only a fractional
increase in 2002/03, annual U.S. rice acreage has averaged 3.3 million acres since 1997, well above the 2.9-million average for the previous decade. In fact, at 3.5 million acres, rice plantings in 1999 were the second highest on record. Prior to 1996, rice plantings were often limited by supply control measures that were terminated with the 1996 Farm Act.
Several factors account for the relatively high level of rice acreage since 1997 in the face of several years of declining rice prices and increased planting flexibility. First, marketing loan benefits—which are based on the difference between the government set loan rate and the adjusted world rice price—augment producer returns in years of low global prices, regardless of U.S. rice prices. Marketing loan benefits were quite substantial from 1999/2000-2002/03 and did not begin to significantly decline until early 2004 when global prices began to rise. In 2003/04, U.S. prices were much higher than during the previous 4 years. Second, rice is often grown in areas that have few, if any, viable alternative planting options. This is especially true on the Gulf Coast—in Texas and Southwest Louisiana—and in California. Third, rice farms typically have much bigger area, substantially larger capital investments, and much higher per acre operating costs than other major field crops—such as wheat, corn, and soybeans—making it very difficult for producers to reduce
plantings and still cover all costs. Finally, much of the machinery and infrastructure is specialized for rice production. These factors make rice plantings less responsive to short-term price fluctuations than most other field crops.
Rice yields have climbed to record highs each year since 2000. U.S. rice farmers have achieved record yields each year since 2000, primarily due to the adoption of new, higher yielding long-grain varieties in the South. The record yields offset much of the impact on crop size caused by reductions in rice acreage in 2000, 2002, and 2003. All southern rice growing States except Texas and Louisiana, which experienced weather problems in 2004, achieved record yields that year. The higher yields reduced per cwt production costs and enabled farmers to grow rice at lower prices. In contrast, California producers achieved record yields more than a decade ago, with the 2004 yield—the highest since 1994—still slightly below record. Weather problems, lack of new varieties, and environmental regulations—such as the phase-down of straw burning—have been largely responsible for California's lower yields over the past decade.
Record yields limit impact of smaller plantings. Despite 2 consecutive years of weaker plantings, U.S. rice production declined only slightly after the bumper 2001 crop—the largest crop on record at the time, as record yields partially offset smaller plantings in 2002 and 2003. In fact, when harvested, the 2002 crop was the second highest on record. In 2004, a fifth consecutive record yield—along with a major area expansion—boosted U.S. rice production to a new record. Increased adoption of new, higher yielding southern long-grain varieties accounts for much of the yield growth. The steady yield growth often offsets any production loss caused by smaller plantings, limiting any price gains. While U.S. rice farmers planted a record 3.8 million acres in 1981, the 2002 record crop was 18 percent larger despite a 13-percent drop in
area.
Imports account for a growing share of domestic use. Since 1980/81, imports have increased almost every year and have accounted for an increasing share of domestic use. Currently, imports account for almost 13 percent of total domestic use (not including seed use). The bulk of U.S. rice imports are aromatic or fragrant rices—primarily jasmine from Thailand and smaller amounts of basmati rice from India and Pakistan. Classified as long grain, these specific Asian aromatic varieties have not been successfully grown in the United States and are heavily consumed by recent immigrants from Asia. U.S. researchers are trying to develop U.S. varieties to compete with these aromatic imports.
In addition, from 2001/02-2003/04, the United States imported significant quantities of medium-grain rice from Australia and China. Puerto Rico—the largest U.S. territory—accounted for virtually all of
these purchases. Australia supplied most of this rice in 2001/02, but tight supplies took it out of this market midway through 2002/03. By the second-half of 2002/03, China began shipping medium-grain rice to Puerto Rico. In 2003/04, China supplied nearly all of U.S. medium-grain rice imported by Puerto Rico. Tight U.S. supplies of medium-grain rice and lower landed prices from competitors were behind the imports of medium-grain rice by Puerto Rico. U.S. medium/short-grain imports dropped sharply in 2004/05 due to large U.S. supplies, more competitive U.S. prices, and tight supplies in Australia and China.
Demand
Several factors will determine the long-term demand for U.S. rice in domestic and international markets, including changes in per capita consumption levels in the United States, U.S. population growth, and the size and composition of global rice trade.
Despite
increased competition, the U.S. remains a major rice exporter. While typically
the world's largest rice exporting country from the late 1960s to 1980, the United
States has faced increasing competition from lower cost Asian competitors since
the early 1980s. First, Thailand in the 1980s and then Vietnam in the 1990s surpassed
the United States as a rice exporter. In addition, from the mid-1990s through
2003, India—and to a lesser degree China—shipped more rice than the
United States in some years. The U.S. share of the global export market declined
from 24 percent in the early 1980s to just 11 percent by 2000. Since 2004, India
and China have significantly reduced exports due to tight supplies. This has allowed
the U.S. share of global rice trade to increase to more than 13 percent. Despite
higher production costs and substantial competition, the United States is still
the third or fourth largest rice exporter. In fact, in 2002/03, the United States
shipped a record 3.86 million metric tons (milled basis) of rice into global markets.
High quality, the reliability of the United States as a supplier, year round delivery,
and versatility of products offered—including rough or unmilled rice—account
for much of the United States' resilience in the global export market. High-freight
costs from Asian exporters to many non-Asian buyers helps maintain U.S. export
levels as well.
Rough rice accounts for a growing share of total U.S.
rice exports. While the United States has lost substantial market share in
the international market for milled rice, which accounts for the bulk of global
rice trade, it has increased its rough exports by a factor of ten over the past
two decades. In fact, U.S. rough rice exports reached a record high in 2003/04,
accounting for 34.4 percent of total U.S. rice exports, the highest share on record.
The bulk of these exports are southern long-grain rice purchased by countries
in Latin America, typically Mexico and Central America. South America, primarily
Brazil, sometimes imports substantial amounts of U.S. rough rice when regional
supplies are inadequate. The United States is the dominant supplier of rice to
Latin America from outside the region.
Several factors account for the high U.S. market share in Latin
America. First, the top Asian exporters do not ship rough rice.
Second, many Latin American buyers prefer to import rough rice instead
of milled rice. Also, in addition to a locational advantage over
Asian shippers, the United States has trade agreements—such
as the North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico—that
assist U.S. exporters in this region. The United States also ships
rough rice to Turkey—a medium-grain market—but often faces
competition from Australia and Egypt. The large share of U.S. rice
exports going to Latin America—where the United States faces
little competition from Asian suppliers—has partially insulated
U.S. export levels from price changes.
The United States has lost market share in
the milled rice market. The United States has lost market share in the global
market for milled rice over the past two decades. First, Thailand, and India more
recently, have substantially cut U.S. market share in Sub-Saharan Africa and the
Middle East, primarily due to lower prices and improved quality—especially
for parboiled rice. The United States is not price competitive in the huge Southeast
Asian rice import markets—such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia—which
are supplied primarily by Thailand and Vietnam. In the European Union (EU), where
the United States ships mostly long-grain brown rice, the U.S. export share has
been relatively stable over the past decade. The EU import market has shown little
growth in recent years. In the summer of 2004, the EU changed its rice policy
by virtually halving its domestic support—or intervention—price and
moving to fixed import levies. It is too early to judge the impact of the new
EU policy on U.S. competitiveness.
Four regions—Sub-Saharan Africa,
the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and the EU—import mostly long-grain rice.
Long grain accounts for almost 75 percent of global rice trade. Only in Northeast
Asia—Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan—has the United States maintained
its market share in the global milled rice market. Northeast Asia imports almost
exclusively medium/short-grain rice, which accounts for 10-12 percent of global
rice trade. Rice imports by the three Northeast Asian countries are all the result
of World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements. The United States has supplied almost
half of Japan's WTO rice imports since 1995. The United States has been a regular
supplier to the two smaller markets—South Korea and Taiwan—for the past
few years as well. The strength of the United States in the Northeast Asian medium-grain
markets has offset some of the U.S. decline in the long-grain global milled rice
markets. Aromatic rice—primarily jasmine and basmati—accounts for around
12 of global rice trade. Asian exporters supply most of this rice.
U.S. rice consumption continues to rise. While the United States has seen its share
of the global rice market decline since the early 1980s, the domestic market has
expanded virtually every year, outpacing population growth and leading to higher
per capita use. In 1980, total domestic use (including the residual, or unreported
losses in processing, handling, and transporting, as well as any statistical errors)
accounted for just 41 percent of total use. Exports accounted for the remainder.
In 2004/05, domestic use accounts for more than 53 percent of total use. A big
increase in Asian-American and Hispanic-American populations, introduction of
several new rice-based food products, and marketing efforts by the rice industry
account for much of this growth.
Baseline Projections for U.S. Rice Supply and Use
Highlighted below are the key assumptions regarding factors driving annual production levels for rice in the United States for 2005-14. Projection details can be obtained from the baseline's U.S. rice supply and use table.
Yield growth projected to slow after 2008. U.S. average rice yields are projected to increase 1 percent a year in 2006-08 and then slow to 0.9 percent annual growth in 2009-11 and to
0.8 percent from 2012-14. The slower rate projected in the latter years is based
on completion or near-completion of adopting new, higher yielding varieties in
the South. These varieties were first introduced in the late 1990s. From 1999-2004,
the average annual yield growth exceeded 2 percent. In addition to increased plantings
of the new varieties, better farm management and continued consolidation of farms
into larger enterprises also support rising average yields over the baseline.
However, even after slowing to 0.8 percent, yield growth would still exceed the
average rate achieved during the 1990s. Planted area to increase after
2006. U.S. rice plantings are projected to decrease 3 percent in 2005 to 3.25
million acres—a result of the large buildup in stocks in 2004/05 and weaker
U.S. rough rice prices during the second half of the market year. No change in
rice plantings is projected for 2006. However, rice acreage is projected to increase
30,000 acres annually in 2008-09, and then rise another 20,000 acres annually
in 2010-11. The area expansion is projected to slow to 10,000 acres annually from
2012-14. By 2014, rice plantings of 3.38-million-acres would be up 130,000 acres
from the start of the projection period. Stronger U.S. prices and lack of a better
planting option for most producers are behind the area expansion over the next
decade. Soybeans are the primary rotation crop for rice producers in the Delta,
the largest rice growing region in the United States.
Among U.S. rice growing
regions, some acreage is expected to shift from the Gulf Coast—the region
with the highest average production cost in the South—to the more competitive
Delta. This shift has been going on for more than two decades. California's rice
acreage is projected to remain relatively stable after decreasing in 2005 from
its 2004 near-record. California's export market is expected to be more stable
than the market for southern long grain exports. The bulk of California's rice
exports are purchased by Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan as part of their annual
WTO commitments.
U.S. rice production to climb each year after 2005. U.S. production is projected to decrease 4 percent to 219 million cwt in 2005—a
result of smaller plantings and a weaker yield. The 2004 record yield was partly
due to extremely favorable weather in most growing areas and a larger share of
plantings in California, which typically achieves yields 25 percent above the
southern average. Rice production is projected to increase each year from 2006
to 2014, a result of record yields and, after 2007, increased plantings. By 2008,
U.S. rice production is projected to reach a 227.9 million cwt, up fractionally
from the 2004 crop, the largest to date. By 2014, annual production of nearly
247 million cwt will exceed the 2004 crop by 8 percent.
Imports to account for a growing share of domestic use. U.S. rice imports are projected to increase
3 percent per year from 2005 to 2014, more than 1 percentage point faster than
domestic and residual use. China and Australia—which accounted for a substantial
share of the growth in U.S. rice imports from 2001/02-2003/04—are not projected
to re-enter the U.S. import market over the baseline, a result of expected tight
supplies in both countries. By 2014, U.S. rice imports are projected at a record
19.6 million cwt and are expected to account for 14 percent of total domestic
use (excluding seed use), up from the current 12-13 percent. Aromatic rices from
Asia are expected to account for the bulk of U.S. rice imports during the baseline
and account for nearly all of the growth.
Exports to expand throughout the baseline. U.S. rice exports are projected to increase each year of the baseline, reaching 124 million cwt by 2014, less than 1 percent below the 2003/04
record. Exports are projected to increase nearly 7 percent in 2005/06 and more
than 4 percent in 2006/07, a result of record supplies and a very small price
difference over Asian competitors. After 2006/07, growth in exports slows to less
than 1 percent a year as the U.S. price difference over Asian competitors widens.
The stronger price increases projected for the United States are the result of
an expanding domestic market outpacing U.S. production growth. While U.S. prices
are projected to increase each year of the baseline, they will not be high enough
to attract sufficient acreage to both satisfy an expanding domestic market and
boost export growth.
Long-grain milled rice exports are expected to increase over the baseline. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East are two markets where the United States is most likely to increase shipments due to more competitive
prices. Exports of rough rice—mostly southern long grain—are likely
to continue expanding over the baseline. Latin America—mostly Mexico and
Central America—will remain the primary buyer of U.S. long-grain rough rice.
Little increase is expected in U.S. medium-grain exports to Northeast Asia over
the baseline.
Total domestic and residual use to reach a record high each year. The U.S. domestic market is projected to expand each year over
the baseline, reaching a record 141.5 million cwt in 2014, nearly 23 million cwt
above this year's level. The rate of increase is projected at 1.7-1.8 percent
per year, which exceeds population growth. This rate of growth is below the 2.5-percent
average estimated for 1993/94-2003/04 and well below the 1983/84-1993/94 average
of 4.5 percent. Competition from other foods, dietary changes, and stronger consumer
demand for convenience and fast foods have likely contributed to the recent slowdown
in the rate of expansion. Despite the slower projected growth in domestic use
over the baseline, per capita use of rice—including the residual, which accounts
for unreported losses in processing, handling, and transporting rice—is projected
to continue increasing each year. From an estimated 27 pounds (not including seed
use) in 2003, per capita use—including pet food—is projected to reach
a record 30 pounds (milled basis) in 2014.
Ending stocks to level off at 31-32 million cwt. Despite a smaller crop and greater total use, U.S. ending stocks of rice are projected to increase in 2005/06, primarily due to the huge
carryin. From 2006/07-2010/11, ending stocks are projected to decline each year
as total use increases at a faster pace than production and imports. By 2010/11,
ending stocks of 29.9 million cwt would be down 28 percent from 2004/05. In 2011/12,
stocks begin to slowly rise again as export growth tapers off due to a widening
price difference over Asian competitors. By 2014/15, ending stocks are projected
to be 33 million cwt. The stocks-to-use ratio in 2005 is projected to remain at
the 2004-level of more than 18 percent. From 2005/06-2010/11, the ratio declines
each year, dropping to 11.8 percent by 2010/11. Starting in 2011/12, the ratio
increases each year, reaching 12.4 percent by 2014/15, about equal to its long-term
average.
Global prices to increase. Global rice prices are projected to increase about 3 percent every year of the baseline, a result of greater global rice trade and some shift
to higher quality rice from lower quality imports by low-income buyers. The adjusted
world price, a weekly announced rough rice price calculated by USDA that is used
to determine marketing loan benefits, is projected to increase from $6.45 per
cwt in 2005/06 to $8.43 by 2014/15, still 2 cents below the 1997/98 level. After
2005/06, the adjusted world price is projected to remain above the U.S. average
rough rice loan rate of $6.50 per cwt for all three classes of rice each year,
resulting in no marketing loan benefits to U.S. rice producers.
The U.S. season-average farm price to increase each year of the baseline. The U.S.
season-average farm price for rice is projected to increase each year of the baseline,
reaching $9.85 by 2014/15, the highest since 1996/97. The season-average price
is projected to exceed the average loan rate of $6.50 per cwt every year of the
baseline. The rising price is the result of higher global trading prices and,
in the United States, rising domestic use and stronger exports more than offsetting
increasing production. U.S. prices are projected to increase at a faster pace
than global prices from 2007/08 to 2012/13, widening the price difference over
major Asian competitors. This difference increases from $0.90 per cwt in 2005/06
to $1.46 in 2012/13, a major factor behind the slowing expansion in U.S. exports
after 2007/08. The difference drops a few cents in 2013/14 and 2014/15.
Baseline Projections for World Rice Trade
International trade in rice is quite thin relative to total production. In fact, only 6-7 percent of global rice production is traded each year, well below the trade shares for other grains and oilseeds. Fifteen years ago, the trade share for rice was barely 4 percent. Increased market access has accounted for much of the increase in the trade share for rice. This is especially true for much of Latin America, where countries began to open their markets in the late 1980s. Despite greater market liberalization, many governments worldwide—especially in Northeast Asia—continue to severely limit rice imports and protect their producers. These policies limit the volume of world rice trade and depress trading prices.
In addition to being a relatively thin market, the global rice market is heavily segmented, with little substitution among types and qualities by producers or consumers. Long grain typically accounts for almost 75 percent of global rice trade. Medium- and short-grain rice combined account for about 12 percent of global trade. Fragrant or aromatic rice accounts for about 12 percent. Specialty rices—primarily glutinous rice—account for most of the remainder of global rice trade.
Global rice consumption and trade projected to expand. Global rice trade is projected to increase
2.3 percent a year from 2005/06 until the end of the baseline in 2014/15, reaching
a record 34.5 million metric tons in 2014/15. Trade is expected to account for
nearly 8 percent of annual production by 2014/15. Increased global rice trade
is primarily driven by rising import demand from Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Sub-Saharan
Africa—the three largest rice import markets. Combined, these three markets
account for 50 percent of the increase in global rice imports projected over the
baseline. Rising imports by Indonesia and Bangladesh are driven by larger populations,
limited ability to expand rice area, and competition for arable land from substitute
crops and nonagricultural uses. Global rice consumption is projected to
increase over the baseline as well, largely due to a rising population in Asia
and modest increases in per capita rice consumption in many non-Asian rice consuming
countries, mostly in Latin America and the Middle East. Many Asian countries are
experiencing declining per capita rice consumption due to diet diversification
resulting from higher incomes. Even in low-income Asian countries, per capita
rice consumption is nearly flat. Global rice production is projected to increase
each year, primarily due to higher yields. Rice area is projected to increase
only slightly over the baseline. Most Asian countries have little ability to expand
rice area.
Long-grain rice is expected to account for the bulk of the growth in global rice trade from
2005-14. Long-grain rice is imported by a broad spectrum of countries in South
and Southeast Asia, much of the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America.
Medium/short-grain rice is primarily imported by Northeast Asia—Japan, South
Korea, and Taiwan—and to a much lesser extent by several countries in the
eastern Mediterranean. Oceania imports a much smaller amount of medium/short-grain
rice. Expansion in medium/short-grain trade is projected to be much slower than
for long grain.
Rising food demand from Indonesia's and Bangladesh's increasing populations is a major factor behind increasing global rice imports. Land constraints and high-crop intensity indicate little opportunity to significantly expand production. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East—major destinations for internationally traded rice—are also projected to substantially increase rice imports over
the baseline, exhibiting annual import growth of 2.3 and 3 percent, respectively.
In both regions, strong demand growth driven by rapidly expanding populations
and rising incomes confronts limited opportunities to expand production. Among
smaller import markets, Central America, the Caribbean, Mexico, the Philippines,
and the United States are all expected to increase rice imports during the baseline.
However, imports are projected to rise only slightly to Other Asia and Oceania,
a result of increasing production in the region and stagnant per capita consumption.
In contrast to these expanding markets, imports are projected to decline over the baseline for Brazil as per capita consumption declines slightly and production increases. Imports are projected nearly flat for the Republic of South Africa, a result of negligible growth in consumption. South Africa does not produce rice.
Asia and United States account for the bulk of rice exports. Asia is expected to
continue to account for the bulk of rice exports over the baseline. Six countries—Thailand,
Vietnam, the United States, India, China, and Pakistan—account for around
85 percent of rice exports throughout the projection period. Thailand and Vietnam,
the world's largest rice-exporting countries, account for nearly half of all rice
exports. Rising production—mostly due to higher yields—and declining
per capita consumption account for the expansion in exports for both countries.
Nonetheless, their share of global rice trade remains flat over the baseline.
India's share increases from less than 11 percent in 2005 to 15 percent by 2014.
Countries exhibiting declining export shares over the baseline include China,
Pakistan, the United States, and the European Union.
The United States is projected to be the third largest rice exporting country from
2005-08. India is expected to over take the United States after 2008, making the
United States the fourth largest exporter from 2009-14. U.S. exports increase
throughout the projection period with an annual growth rate of about 1 percent
after 2006. In India, high internal price supports continue to encourage large
production and exportable supplies. India's exports are projected to increase
7 percent a year. Pakistan—currently, the fifth largest rice exporting country—has
little ability to expand rice area. Producers are facing a growing water shortage
as well. As a result, Pakistan's exports are projected to be relatively flat—slightly
less than 2.5 million metric tons a year—over the baseline. Rice exports
from China—currently, the world's sixth largest exporter€remain almost
flat at 1.2 million metric tons over the next decade. Among the smaller
exporting countries, Australia, Argentina, and other South America (Uruguay, Guyana,
and Surinam) are expected to increase exports over the baseline. Australia increases
its rice exports from 280,000 metric tons in 2005 to 560,000 by 2009 as production
recovers from the recent drought. Australia's exports are nearly flat the remainder
of the baseline. Argentina's rice exports are projected to expand 3-4 percent
a year during 2005-14, as larger production more than offsets growth in domestic
consumption. Exports from other South American sources are projected to increase
at 2-3 percent per year, as production growth outstrips domestic consumption.
Egypt and the EU also export rice. Despite steady growth in consumption, Egypt's
exports are projected to remain at record or near-record levels every year of
the baseline, a result of strong production growth. Rice shipments from the EU
are projected to remain at current levels over the 10-year baseline.
|
