Reclassification of Nonmetro Areas Exaggerates Employment
Gap
Lorin
D. Kusmin
Population growth has occurred
in a number of nonmetro counties because they are
on the edges of established metro areas or are centered
on smaller but growing urban areas. After each decennial
census, these population shifts cause some nonmetro
counties to be reclassified as metropolitan. Metro
areas that lose population are reclassified as nonmetropolitan
much less frequently, primarily as a result of changes
in metro area reclassification rules (see “Behind
the Data,” Amber Waves, September
2003). The net result of these changes is that the
area classified as nonmetropolitan becomes slightly
smaller after each census, and many of the fastest
growing nonmetro counties are reclassified as metro.
This reclassification can affect
employment statistics, exaggerating the contrast
in metro-nonmetro economic growth. In fact, the
apparent decline of nonmetro employment and most
of the evident gap between metro and nonmetro growth
rates reflect the reclassification of nonmetro counties
as metro.
For example, employment in America’s
nonmetro counties fell 3.3 percent between 1976
and 2005 to 22.8 million. Because total U.S. employment
grew nearly 60 percent in that span, nonmetro’s
share declined from 26.6 percent to 16.1 percent.
Meanwhile, metro employment jumped 82.5 percent
to 118.9 million and the metro share of total U.S.
employment rose from 73.4 to 83.9 percent.
To understand the impact of reclassification,
consider the 2,486 counties classified as nonmetro
in 1976. By 2005, employment in these counties had
grown 54.1 percent to 36.3 million, and they accounted
for 25.6 percent of total U.S. employment, just
1 percentage point below the corresponding value
for 1976. Thus, comparing growth rates based on
1976 metro status reveals a relatively modest disparity
between the experience of metro and nonmetro counties.
However, the 2000 census reclassified
464 nonmetro counties as metro, which changes the
employment picture. Employment in these “new”
metro counties increased 92.8 percent from 1976
to 2005, compared with 36.5 percent in the 2,022
counties that remained nonmetro. At the same time,
employment in the 625 counties that remained metro
from 1976 to 2005 grew 61.7 percent to 104.7 million.
The reclassified counties represented more than
30 percent of the nonmetro employment base in 1976.
Even if the expansion of metro
areas continues, the current nonmetro counties likely
will still account for something close to their
present share of national employment 30 years from
now when growth rates are compared based on 2005
metro status. However, a disproportionate number
of the fastest growing among these counties will
be reclassified as metro, and statistically speaking,
the remaining nonmetro counties’ share of
national employment will decline even further.
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